Q&A – Could U.S. Bunker Buster Bombs Take Out Iran’s Nuclear Sites? – Driven By Braman Motorcars
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Today’s Entry: Good day Brian, News outlets like Fox News are suggesting that the US “bunker busters” can take out the Iranian deeply buried targets. My bet is that a bunker buster can't penetrate deep enough to destroy a site 0.5 miles underground. Maybe the shockwave could collapse the entries and exits. That deeply buried target may be impenetrable.
Bottom Line: As Israel has the Iranian regime on the brink of demise, you’ve raised an instructive question, that’s also an important question to address in the bigger picture. How is it that Israel and/or the US can ensure that the catalyst for the Israel-Iran war, Iran’s highly developed nuclear program, is permanently disabled? Even if, for example, there is regime change in Iran, from the terror-sponsoring Ayatollahs, to a reasonable government, backed by the Iranian citizens – it still wouldn’t be advisable to turn a highly advanced nuclear program over to a new unknown governing body.
While Israel’s military operations appear to have disabled all of Iran’s enrichment operations, what we know is that no permanent disabling of Iran’s nuclear program has taken place as of now. If nuclear material (uranium) had taken any direct hits, there would be elevated radiation levels in surrounding areas. According to the International Atomic Energy Agency there isn’t and hasn’t been any increase in radiation at any Iranian sites. So, this invites the question, how exactly is it that Israel can go about permanently disabling the nuclear program?
Boots on the ground is an option, however it’s likely not a good one. Not only is the IDF still engaged on the ground in Gaza and with security needs in and around Israel from multi-tiered threats – that perhaps could be exploited if the IDF were to deploy to Iran (which also carries significant geographical/logical challenges), there’s no telling what the IDF would encounter on the ground – how they’d be received by civilians – and also whether it would be safe for troops to enter damaged nuclear enrichment facilities.
Seemingly the ideal situation would be for the ability to disable nuclear sites from the sky. That’s where the conversation surrounding bunker buster bombs comes into play. So, is it possible for Iran’s nuclear sites to be permanently disabled by bunker busters and is Israel capable of deploying them?
As I covered on Monday, the United States supplies 69% of Israel’s munitions. So, most of what you see being used by Israel in Iran is US weaponry. But, to the root of today’s note, you haven’t seen any of the U.S.’s renowned bunker buster bombs. Let’s start with what’s required for the use of bunker buster bombs. In other words, whether the Israeli military would have the ability to deploy the bunker busters if we supplied them to Israel.
There actually isn’t one “bunker buster bomb”...there are multiples in the U.S. military’s arsenal. What is known as the GBU-28 (or Guided Bomb Unit-28), The GBU-72 and the GBU-57A/B MOP (Massive Ordnance Penetrator). These are far from being equal.
The GBU-28 is a legacy weapon capable of penetrating 160 feet into the ground or through 16 feet of concrete. Similarly, The GBU-72 was brought online in 2021 – its details are classified, but are said to be “substantially higher than its predecessor the GBU-28. Still, its payload is only 20% greater in size and weight and therefore likely produces something on the order of 190 feet of ground penetration or 19 feet of concrete. But then there is the bomb that’s already replaced what had been known as the MOAB (or mother of all bombs). The GBU-57A/B MOP. This thing delivers six times the payload of the GBU-28 (at 30,000 pounds).
Details of the MOPs capabilities are also classified, but are believed to be a half mile for standard ground penetration or up to 200 feet of concrete. Iran’s nuclear facilities are estimated to be 262-295 feet below ground. If there’s any chance of truly taking out Iran’s nuclear sites from the air, it would have to be delivery of the MOP for there to be any realistic chance of success. Reports exist that Israel wants the MOP. But here’s the problem even if we wanted to give it to them. Israel doesn’t have the equipment to use it.
There’s only one aircraft in the world that can deploy the MOP – the B-2 Bomber and Israel doesn’t have any of these. In fact, there are only 19 known, active, B-2 Bombers in the world, and we have them all.
In other words, there’s no realistic way for Israel to do this unless there’s direct US military action (I mean, I guess in theory we could try to hand over one of our few B-2's in addition to numerous MOP’s, try to train Israeli pilots on how to fly the bomber and deploy the payload but how realistic sounding is that really – especially in light of the existing situation).
So therein lies the bigger issue with this question. It may actually be possible to take out Iran’s nuclear sites with MOPs, but not without direct U.S. military action. One might imagine this has been a central piece of the conversation that pulled President Trump away from the G-7.