An Economic Boom, Media’s Worse Than You Knew & The Real Thing – Top 3 Takeaways July 18th, 2025
Takeaway #1: An economic boom?
My top takeaway to end this week actually takes me back to my third takeaway to start the week. On Monday, I offered up this to you... for the second month out of three full months of reporting during the Trump administration, the United States Treasury ran a surplus – or in other words a profit – of $27 billion during the month. Why? How? Three big reasons. 1) Revenue to the Treasury increased a whopping 12% year-over-year driven by a strong economy and 2) Record tariff revenue of just about $27 billion during the month – which was up about 500% year over year and 3) Spending by the Treasury dropped year-over-year in part driven by federal government DOGEing and fewer federal government employees. And in a deeper dive into the 2nd quarter phenomenon on Tuesday I mentioned this... Total Deficit: $208 billion for the 2nd quarter in 2024 vs. $31 billion for 2025 – or $177 billion less year-over-year. It’s hard to overstate the significance of the 2nd quarter Treasury report. As large as the U.S. economy is, it’s almost unheard and implausible to see double-digit growth in revenues year-over-year yet that’s what we saw. This will almost certainly result in second quarter economic growth coming in much higher than economists' expectations when reported on July 30th. So, a couple of things. First, there’s a difference between Treasury receipts and the way GDP growth is calculated – so it remains to be seen on July 30th what the boom in Treasury revenues will equal, as in calculated GDP growth...but...new economic data on Thursday provided another clue. There was great news on retail sales in June too. Here are headlines from around the horn yesterday: CNN – Retail sales jumped more than expected last month. Yahoo – Retail sales rise more than expected in June. Axios – Forecasters hand-wring over tariffs, but the economy’s still doing fine. And that’s potentially an understatement. After a decline in retail sales in May, retail sales boomed in June in a significant way. Sales came in way ahead of expectations, up 0.6% for the month and most notably 3.9% year-over-year. Consumer spending makes up about 70% of the U.S. economy. If Treasury recipients are up huge (in part due to new tariff revenue), and if retail sales most recently rose are close to higher 4% year-over-year there’s a reason to be optimistic about what we’ll see with the second quarter GDP when it’s reported in under two weeks. While it remains to be seen if we’re already in an economic boom – one thing that’s clear is that the economy is much better off than people feared at the start of the second quarter around Liberation Day.
Takeaway #2: Worse than you knew
When you think of the worst example of how little the GSS News Media thinks of you, what comes to mind? Whatever it is, the reality is probably worse that your thought is. I’ll explain. First, Chuck Todd has a podcast. Second, apparently someone listened to it (I figured those two things needed to be explained). So, this week on that podcast, CBS News correspondent Scott MacFarlane, who was on hand with other media at Trump’s Butler, PA rally had this to say to Chuck: For those of us there, it was such a horror because you saw an emerging America. And it wasn't the shooting, Chuck. This was – I got diagnosed with PTSD within 48 hours. I got put on trauma leave, not because, I think, of the shooting, but because you saw it in the eyes, the reaction of the people. They were coming for us. If [Trump] didn't jump up with his fist, they were going to come kill us! Many of us on press row, as we talked about this on our text chains for weeks after, were quite confident we'd be dead if he didn't get back up. Chuck Todd agreed btw. Now, never mind that President Trump was shot and within an inch of being assassinated. Never mind that one of his supporters was murdered. The real trauma, the real threat – Trump's supporters. No matter what that thought was in your mind, you probably didn’t think that they thought of you as a killer. But as Scott said and Chuck agreed – they do. These mentally and spiritually broken people are far worse than you knew.
Takeaway #3: The Real Thing & MAHA
Coca Cola’s storied history of being “the real thing” has taken on many different meanings and has been communicated in many different ways. While many of a certain age may associate the onset of Coca Cola’s “Real thing” campaign with the hippies of the 60’s, which included James Brown’s psychedelic styled ad for Coke...Which opened the door to a whole new world of advertising...btw, related, did you know inspired two future top hits (I’d Like to Teach the World to Sing & It’s The Real Thing!) or in the 70’s the Mean Joe Greene Real Thing. But anyway, back to Coke being the real thing. The truth is that Coca-Cola hasn’t been “The Real Thing” since 1903 – when they stopped putting fresh cocaine into their drinks. But short of loading narcotics in Coke, which is where it’s named is derived, it had been “the Real Thing”, as in the original carbonated cola the company had produced until 1984. One year before the New Coke debacle, Coke made a decision that in many ways could be argued was a bigger mistake. 1984 was the year Coke sold out “the real thing – cane sugar” for the ultra-processed high-fructose corn syrup thing. Not that drinking dozens of grams of cane sugar is a good thing to be doing, but drinking similar quantities of high-fructose corn syrup is about the last thing any of us should be doing. According to the National Institutes of Health consumption of these beverages: is related to the risk of diabetes, the metabolic syndrome, and cardiovascular disease (among other things). RFK Jr.’s MAHA movement made waves on Thursday when President Trump announced this: I have been speaking to Coca-Cola about using REAL Cane Sugar in Coke in the United States, and they have agreed to do so. I’d like to thank all of those in authority at Coca-Cola. This will be a very good move by them — You’ll see. It’s just better! In response Coke didn’t exactly sing the same tune but they did say this: We appreciate President Trump’s enthusiasm for our iconic Coca-Cola brand. More details on new innovative offerings within our Coca-Cola product range will be shared soon. So, Coke is neither confirming nor denying that they’ll go back to the real thing, but this development is encouraging...