Election Day Implications – Top 3 Takeaways, November 4th, 2025
Takeaway #1: Poll test
It’s Election Day in New Jersey and Virginia, in addition to select cities, most notably – New York City. If the polls, and for that matter the betting markets, prove to be accurate, it figures to be a good day for progressives in the limited election action taking place across the country. In addition to NYC there are also key mayoral races in Atlanta, Boston, Cleveland, Detroit, Minneapolis, and Seattle too. In each of those races' progressives are the favorites to win. Regarding what will take place when votes are counted in the races...I’ve been asked a time or two, but I don’t know any more than you as I’ve not spent time digging into the nitty gritty, but I can provide a bit of insight into the potential view of the possible here using history as a guide. Essentially today will be yet another poll test of sorts. In the New York City mayoral race, the Democratic-Socialist, Mamdani is shown with an RCP polling advantage of 14.3-points. On Polymarket (the legal way to gamble on these things), Mamdani is shown with a 92% chance of winning the election. In New Jersey, the Democrat Sherrill is shown with an average 3.3% polling advantage heading into today that’s translated into a 88% chance of her winning on Polymarket. And in Virigina the Democrat Spanberger is shown with a seemingly cozy 8.9% RCP lead that’s been translated into a 99% chance of a win on Polymarket. Bettors are also pricing in an 86% chance of Democrats sweeping all three of these closely watched races. My first bit of surface analysis based on what I just brought you is this. There’s a bit of a disconnect between the polling results and the betting markets in these three races. Based on the polls alone, Mamdani should be performing better than Spanberger in the betting markets, and Sherrill shouldn’t be priced as a near certain winner. So, I’ll pull back one additional layer to see how these polls performed previously and see if we can infer anything from it in the process. Four years ago, the final RCP polling average in the Virigina race had Glenn Youngkin leading by 1.7 - points in an election he won by 1.9 points. The Virginia polls performed almost perfectly in the governor’s race most recently. With Spanberger shown with what’s nearly a 9-point lead and the performance of the polls previously, she’s likely to win by less than what the polls say but still enough to have a comfortable day. Virginia does appear likely to flip. New Jersey's a different story though. Four years ago, Republican Jack Ciattarelli was shown with a 7.8% deficit in polls heading into Election Day. In the end he lost but performed exactly 5-points better than in the polls. This time around Ciattarelli is shown with only a 3.3% deficit heading into Election Day. If the polls perform the way they did four years ago, Jack Ciattarelli will be the next governor of New Jersey. Also, somewhat noteworthy, New Jersey’s GOP gubernatorial candidates outperformed the polls in 2017, 2013 and 2009 too... That’s interesting. New Jersey is the state to watch for me. In addition Virigina’s AG race... If Jay Jones can flip Virginia’s AG race blue despite the revelation that he’s literally discussed killing his political opposition and their families, that would be particularly concerning. As for New York City. We haven’t had a race like this in NYC in recent political history to compare it to and it’s hard to imagine the RCP polling average would be off by at least 15. Also, the analyst with the best record in projecting New York City this cycle Michael Lange, if forecasting a 16-point win for Mamdani – with him winning more than 50% of the vote in the three-way contest based on turnout models and voting patterns. It looks like fait accompli that NYC will elect a commie. Which means...
Takeaway #2: NYC Mass Migration Part 2
It was about two weeks ago that I broke down what’s known as the “Mamdani Effect”, and specifically the number of relocations we might see in Florida. The result was this... Based on levels of expressed interest to date, it appears likely we’d see an approximate 50% increase in relocations, above the current trend, leading to an estimated 40,000 additional relocations from New York City to Florida within the first year. The impact would likely be felt immediately. New York’s mayor is sworn in on January 1st, and obviously the process of selling a home, buying a home and moving takes time. For these reasons, should Mamdani win tonight, we’re likely to see an immediate spike in local real-estate activity tomorrow. The other related shoe that could drop and impact even more quickly would be part-time residents from New York City becoming permanent residents of Florida. That’s a smaller universe of people, but there are likely some that do exist. It’s not Election Day in Florida, but we’re likely to feel the effects from what happens next in New York City almost immediately.
Takeaway #3: Don’t buy the narratives
Regardless of what happens in today’s elections, don’t buy the narrative that there are any national implications. There aren’t...with two exceptions. Four years ago, Republicans outperformed expectations in these elections but underperformed in 2022’s midterm elections. There’s absolutely nothing about New Jersey or Virgina’s gubernatorial races that carry any implications beyond those states. Most notably it’s what happens in California, with Prop 50 – that would allow for the temporary gerrymandering of California’s congressional districts that has potential national implications (with Democrats believing they can carve out another five seats), and the mayoral race in New York City that hold the potential to have the biggest political impact going forward. Mamdani’s win will be viewed, and will be attempted to be used, by the socialist wing of the Democrat Party to further their attempted takeover. This could immediately pressure politicians nationally on how they go about dealing with the partial government shutdown, especially Democrats who could face primary challenges next year. It could encourage the socialist wing to field more candidates in more races throughout the country next year. That’s the potentially lasting implication of what’s in play today. It’s not about left-right politics. It’s about the socialist wing vs. the establishment of the Democrat Party.