It's Game. Set...and Nearly Match for a Trump Win to End the Iran War – Top 3 Takeaways, October 2nd, 2026
Takeaway #1: Game. Set...
I started this week with this message for you in my Top 3 Takeaways... You Might Not Feel It, Yet – But We're Winning the Iran War. In those takeaways I highlighted President Trump's depiction of how his meeting with President Xi went...that it was a 12 out of 10, and how following that seemingly better than possible meeting Iran's President began begging for the U.S. to go back to the MOU from June. I updated the rapidly growing traffic through the Strait of Hormuz with Saudi Arabian oil output having recently risen by 2.2 million barrels of oil per day (an increase which is effectively as much as Iran has ever produced in a given day). I spoke of Russia's energy crisis, and China's crippled Axis network with Venezuela now aligned with us and Cuba collapsing too. I detailed Iran's 84% inflation rate and how as of Monday they only had an estimated two weeks' worth oil left to attempt to use or sell - illustrating why Iran's tone had changed as they're now publicly eager to get to a deal because President Trump's operation to economically isolate Iran was working. In summary I said this... All of Iran's leverage surrounds keeping the Strait closed and energy prices higher. Iran is running out of money to fund and equip their terror proxies – Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis – in addition to the IRGC. And if the U.S. has turned the corner in improving traffic through the Strait of Hormuz – the situation will only get incrementally better for us, while it continues to be much worse for the mullahs in Iran. These are the reasons why Iran now is desperate to do the deal they signed off on originally...and why President Trump isn't quick to take it. We're winning and in a much bigger way than is being portrayed, or that is appreciated with the crumbling of the Axis powers and the thwarting of what at worst could be World War III. Now, as you go to the pump it still won't feel like we're on the brink of winning this thing...but we are because...
Takeaway #2: Match point in the Iranian war is now in sight
Kpler, the leading analytics firm monitoring oil traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, confirmed that oil traffic through the Gulf region is now back to prewar levels and that now on any given day there's a record amount of energy coming through the region. In a new report by Kpler entitled: Explainer: How Mideast Gulf crude exports returned to pre-war levels - they report this: Excluding Iran, crude exports from the Middle East Gulf region are back at pre-war levels. But 40% now bypass Hormuz, and most crude crossing the strait changes tankers offshore. Kpler tracking and satellite imagery analysis show how the region rebuilt its export system. Crude leaving the Middle East Gulf region is back at pre-war levels outside Iran, 7 months after the war closed the Strait of Hormuz. At least 16.5 mbd left the region between 1 and 28 September, matching the pre-war average excluding Iran. That is 10.5 mbd above March's monthly average. The volume recovered. The route did not. Before the war, 83% of the region's crude crossed Hormuz. In September, 40% left without crossing the strait. Of the crude that did cross in August, more than 70% changed tankers offshore in the Gulf of Oman. That makes the recovery hard to see with conventional tracking. Tankers cross with their AIS transponders off, cargoes change ships in open water, and Saudi exports have swung between the Gulf and the Red Sea. And with this information in hand, that not only is oil back to, or even in real-time above prewar levels, but that 40% no longer even goes through the Strait of Hormuz...that sound you hear is...President Trump telling Iran that this is game, set, match.
Takeaway #3: Iran's leverage is effectively gone
As is their economy too. Oil markets have dropped from a peak for WTI crude of $107 to $92 most recently with export increases, however by and large the energy markets haven't reflected this change yet. And the biggest short-term strain remains with refined energy – which became further restrained yesterday because China has decided to put an export ban on refined energy in place amid their concerns surrounding their crumbling Axis network. All of this is to say that day-by-day the dynamic in the middle east will continue to trend our way, at some point soon you'll see greater confidence come back into the energy market complex with price decreases that should follow. It's also impossible for me to get inside the head of 12th Imam Islamic terrorist to know what it is that they'll decide to do – but don't be surprised to hear that there's a substantive deal in place with them soon too. President Trump has already said the conditions this time round won't be as favorable as they were with June's MOU – that Iran has been pleading for us to go back to. President Trump's October surprise appears to be that we are in fact not only winning the Iran war, but that effectively it's been won – and much of the world just hasn't realized it yet. The prevailing thought in many corners is that Trump is waiting until after the midterms to escalate the conflict militarily once again. That may prove to be the case if a deal isn't done by then – to put an end to the extent of our military stance in the region. But even then, it doesn't inherently mean we couldn't pull the energy we need out of the region. This weekend and the upcoming week should be particularly interesting because it's likely that much of what I've mentioned this week will begin to come together in a much more visible way. And that means that there's also a decent chance that we're not too terribly far away from a time in which you may not mind the price you find at the pump.