Q&A of the Day – Do Special Elections Predict General Election Outcomes?
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Today’s Entry: @brianmuddradio There’s a lot of talk that the Santos replacement race is predictive of what’s to come this year. What are the facts?
Bottom Line: The facts are that talk of the predictive outcome of special elections is often significantly overstated and that the special election to replace George Santos in New York’s 3rd Congressional District was especially important. That might sound contradictory or as though I’m talking in circles but I’m not and I’ll explain – starting with the extent to which special elections are overstated. Quoting from an NBC News article yesterday prior to polls closing in the race: Tuesday’s special election in New York’s 3rd Congressional District might do more than replace disgraced GOP former Rep. George Santos in the House. It could also have implications beyond Long Island, from the House majority to November’s elections. So, there you go. We’re to potentially believe that a Long Island special election in the middle of a snowstorm in February is potentially a key tell about how voters will break at the ballot box in November’s general presidential election cycle. It would be hard to further overstate the potential relevance of that race but nevertheless is there something to it?
You asked for the facts and as always there are two sides to stories and one side to facts. So, let's go to the scorecard. What I’m doing for this exercise is going back through all congressional special elections in election years and tracking the outcome in those races with what the overall result was in November:
2014: Five special elections – 3 wins by Republicans, 2 wins by Democrats, no flips by either party
General election result: Republicans +5.7%
2016: Four special elections – 2 wins by Democrats, 2 wins by Republicans, no flips by either party
General election result: Republicans +1.1%
2018: Eight special elections – 5 wins by Democrats, 3 wins by Republicans, 3 net pickups by Democrats
General election result: Democrats +8.4%
2020: Five special elections – 3 wins by Republicans, 2 wins by Democrats, 1 net pickup for Republicans
General election result: Democrats +3.1%
2022: Nine special elections – 6 wins by Republicans, 3 wins by Democrats, no net pickups (A Democrat flipped a Republican seat, and a Republican flipped a Democrat seat)
General election result: Republicans +2.8%
So, what is there to make of that? That’s the best question of all. Essentially nothing. In only one of the past five congressional election cycles has there been any type of potentially direct correlation between special election outcomes and general election results. That was in 2018 when Democrats picked up three seats in advance of what was essentially a wave election cycle for them in November. However, the opposite was also true. Republicans netted a congressional seat in a special election in 2020 only to lose the general election in November. The average result of special congressional election outcomes in relation to general election results over the past five election cycles is that they have no bearing or predictive capabilities. And from times and issues changing to turnout there are a lot of reasons for that. So no, no matter how many stories you read about the relevance of Long Island’s special election – there's no empirical way to prove it as being true. Now, I did say in the open that the race to replace Santos was especially important, so I’ll explain.
First and foremost, the Republican majority in the House is currently razor thin and we’ve seen on more than one occasion the difference a vote or two can make in the current Congress. Most recently last week when Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas survived his original impeachment attempt by one vote before being impeached last night by one vote. But then there’s the power of incumbency as well. Over the past decade an average of 95% of incumbents in the House have won reelection. The winner from last night has a significant advantage heading into November in what will be a likely rematch. The power of incumbency is real and has historically been the most predictive indicator of election outcomes. That’s true in all elected offices but it’s especially true in Congress. A Democrat pickup of what had been a Republican swing district could help shape control of the House of Representatives next year and would make the map that much more challenging for Republicans this fall as they seek to at least hang onto the slim majority they have in the House.