Q&A of the Day – The Mamdani Effect on Florida’s Politics

Each day I feature a listener question sent by one of these methods.

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Today’s entry: Brian- there aren’t many Republicans left in NYC. If Mamdani wins there’s bound to be Democrats (Cuomo voters) coming here too.

Bottom Line: As we know now, Democratic Socialist Zohran Mamdani has won and will be the next mayor of New York City. With the win what’s been coined, the “Mamdani Effect” is likely to be in full effect in Florida right away. As my recent analysis showed, those who’ve relocated from New York state to Florida since 2020, 40% have been from New York City specifically. In total there are approximately 145,000 residents of New York City that have relocated to Florida this decade. Specific to the line of thinking introduced with today’s note...

You’re almost certainly correct that Mamdani-motivated migration from NYC to Florida will include “Cuomo” Democrats too. In fact, I spoke of this dynamic in my “Mamdani Effect” story by saying... If you weren’t motivated to move out of New York City due to politics previously, but you could potentially be now, there’s a good chance a couple of factors apply... 1) Work considerations 2) Left leaning – high income. The bottom line is that there just aren’t many right leaning voters in New York City left. New York City’s population is 700,000 fewer people today compared to five years ago, and the people left are overwhelmingly leftists...but not all. In last year’s presidential election President Trump won 786,294 votes.

Based on levels of expressed interest to date, it appears it’s likely we’d see an approximate 50% increase in relocations, above the current trend, leading to an estimated 40,000 additional relocations from New York City to Florida within the first year. In other words, the Mamdani Effect appears to be a real phenomenon, but not quite to the level of COVID-related migration trends. One of the big reasons for this is the wildcard in this conversation... Businesses considerations.

Have the firms that were serious about leaving NYC already done it? Or is there another business exodus in the making. If there is, the potential for COVID-styled mass migration could occur. So clearly it remains to be seen what businesses leaders will do and thus how many relocations would then take place regionally as opposed to out of state due to professional considerations. Business relocations to our area might be more likely to bring a diverse political mix of people as well. So, about this...

With as quickly as Florida moved from a swing state to a solidly red state, it may have felt as though virtually all relocating to Florida in recent years have been Republicans, but that of course hasn’t been the case. In April a study entitled: Swung State: An Examination of Florida’s Political Transformation was presented as an honors thesis by a graduate student of Brandeis University. The study illustrates the specific political makeup of net migration over the prior five years. Here’s what that looks like:

Republicans: 45%
NPAs: 29%
Democrats: 24%
Minor Party: 2%

So, Republicans have relocated to this state at close to a 2 to 1 margin through recent migration trends, but still close to a quarter of all migration into this state has been by Democrats.

We obviously won’t know what the political makeup of Mamdani inspired relocations will be until we get there, however it’s reasonable to assume that on balance more Republicans than Democrats would be the ones making the move. After all, how many “Cuomo Democrats” want to move to the land of DeSantis and Trump? Cuomo Democrats concerned about Mamdani would likely be more likely to relocate just outside of New York City in Westchester County, Connecticut, etc.

Should the previous political splits from New York hold, based on my projections, the year one influence of the Mamdani Effect in Florida would mean approximately:

+18,000 Republicans
+11,600 NPAs
+9,600 Democrats
+800 Minor Party

Expect real-estate agents to be busy throughout this holiday season in Florida this year. It’s likely the existing political trends will continue with those motivated to move to our state based on New York City’s mayoral election. That means more business relocations and more net Republicans.

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