An American Pope & A British Trade - Top 3 Takeaways – May 9th, 2025 - Driven By Braman Motorcars
Takeaway #1: An American Pope...
Ok, so that was something I never expected. It was a great day for Catholicism, for Christianity generally and by extension yesterday was a great day for humanity. On the fourth vote the cardinals got it right. It’s a new chapter for the Catholic Church in more ways than one. Chicago born (and naturalized Peruvian citizen) Cardinal Robert Prevost – known heretofore as Pope Leo XIV. In the words of President Trump, it’s “a Great Honor for our Country”. It’s been 102 years since Pope Leo XIII, and as always – there's a lot to a pope’s chosen name. Leo XIII was pope for 25-years – having been elected pope at age 68 – only one year younger than our newest pope. The previous Leo XIII was a pragmatist who boldly rejected socialism at a time when it was on the rise, while at the same time siding with labor unions over corporations and unchecked capitalism – at a time both were also on the rise. His stances earned the nickname the “Workers’ Pope”. A lot of digging has been done into this pope and spun to fit agendas. I don’t have interest in doing that. As I mentioned following the passing of Pope Francis – the church and the faith were at an inflection point. Continue to pursue the progressive ways of embracing things like the homosexual alphabet and other constructs of pop culture in a flawed society – or get back to teaching God’s words. Whatever you might hear, whatever the spin might be, the choice, what I need to know about the new pope is summed up with this. In a speech before bishops Pope Leo said that pop culture prompted sympathy for beliefs and practices that are at odds with the gospel. He specifically highlighted matters of homosexuality. And that’s it precisely. What we’ve needed is an originalist and by way of his own words that’s who the new pope is, a pragmatic originalist. As I also said in the wake of the passing of Pope Francis... I’ll pray that the next decision, no matter who the person ends up being, prioritizes God’s word, over the current ways and temptations of the world, and would encourage you to do so too. The fate of the Catholic faith, but also the world, may hang in the balance. Gone is the progressivism of Francis, in is the originalism of Leo. In the words of Pope Leo the XIV yesterday (spoken in Italian and Spanish without a word of English). God loves everyone. Evil will not prevail. Amen.
Takeaway #2: A New Deal
Now we know (I think) what President Trump was hinting at earlier in the week when he said...he said he’d soon announce... something very, very big ...like as big as it gets. You can decide whether you think a trade deal with the UK is...like as big as it gets (or maybe there is other news that hits before the end of the day Monday?), technically speaking all in trade deal with the U.K. is the 11th biggest deal President Trump can make on trade...as the year-to-date trade totals show England ranking 11th in total trade with the U.S. currently. There’s also another wrinkle with the U.K. that made a trade deal easier for President Trump to make. It’s one of the rare countries the U.S. already has a trade surplus with. So, in other words, we technically were already benefitting the most with the British trade relationship prior to the establishment of the new deal. What that means is that any concessions President Trump got for the U.S. simply made an already good trade arrangement that much better. On that note, it might have been these words from President Trump that mattered most yesterday: Today’s agreement with the U.K. is the first in a series of agreements on trade that my administration has been negotiating over the past four weeks. The implication being that this is the first of what’s expected to be many new trade deals that are completed within the coming weeks. It seems that President Trump specifically wanted the deal announced yesterday because it was the V-Day, or World War II Victory Day anniversary. Symbolism has increasingly become a Trump administration theme a la DOGE being in force until our country’s 250th anniversary. So back to the deal. What’s in it and...
Takeaway #3: What does it mean?
Structurally the biggest news emerging from yesterday’s UK trade deal was the news that the current 10% tariffs charged for UK imports into the United States will remain in place with the president stating that 10% is the floor that all countries will be charged for importing goods into the US – with select exceptions. What this means is that tariffs are here to stay – the question comes down to the rate. Quoting the president: Some will be much higher because they have massive trade surpluses and in many cases they didn’t treat us right. So, news of trade deals doesn’t mean an auto-reset of sorts to doing business the way we used to be doing it. President Trump’s serious about super-serving American interests. What the U.S. gained from the deal is full market access to the UK for America’s agriculture industry, including multiple tariff free categories such as beef – where tariff rates had averaged greater than 9% previously. That’s a nice win for American producers. England also agreed to purchase $10 billion in Boeing aircraft and align their steel tariff policies with the U.S. So essentially, for the cost of nothing, President Trump was able to get reduced UK tariffs on U.S. agricultural products, $10 billion in new business for a major U.S. manufacture, and policy that helps protect the U.S. steel industry. It’s far from the biggest trade deal that President Trump will make, however it’s endemic of why his policy has been worth pursuing. The stock market’s reaction yesterday – with another massive rally that took place – tells you the relevance of our new arrangement on trade with the U.K.