How Low Can Stocks & Crypto Go? May 27th, 2025 - Driven By Braman Motorcars
The Markets Are Testing Your Nerves—Here’s What You Need to Know
Bottom Line: My first rule of money... Never let your money and emotions cross paths. This isn’t a doomscroll though after the past week you might feel that you’re living through one. This story is a weekly wake-up call to show you the near-worst-case scenario for stocks and crypto. Why? So, you can plan your financial future with a cool head, not a racing pulse. The odds of a near-worst case outcome almost certainly won’t happen, however if your plan accounts for it – it can help you manage through even the most trying markets like what we’re experiencing right now.
The US stock market is history’s ultimate wealth-building beast. Crypto? It’s minted millionaires from early believers. Fact: Over 90% of the time, investors who try to “time” the market end up poorer than if they just stuck to their original investments. This is about dodging that trap.
Here’s how the big three indexes are faring in 2025 so far:
- DOW: -2% (-2% last week)
- S&P 500: -1% (-3% last week)
- Nasdaq: -3% (-2% week)
The market rally paused last week after the furious recovery from April’s tariff tantrums led stocks back to within shouting distance of record highs once again. With earnings season once again behind us the markets are exclusively headline driven and a few of the headlines made investors uneasy. First, there was the House passage of President Trump’s One Big, Beautiful Bill Act. It’s legislation that Wall Street has a love/hate relationship with. On the one hand the market loves lower taxes and regulation – which are pro-growth policies. On the other hand, bond market watchers are increasingly nervous about the ever-increasing national debt that’s projected with the OBBB (according to CBO and independent agency estimates). Then there was the tariff flap 2.0 that cropped up on Friday.
President Trump’s announcement that he’s intending on adding 25% tariffs to iPhones that aren’t made in the United States (currently none of them are as Apple has moved iPhone production from China to India since early April) was viewed as concerning by investors as was his next announcement that he was considering a 50% across the board tariff on the EU (in what would be an increase of 40% over current levels) as trade talks had evidently stalled with the bloc – in the wake of Trump’s trade deal with England – which as a result of Brexit isn’t part of the EU.
On Sunday President Trump said he had a good call with the EU and was delaying the increase tariff from June 1st to July 9th. There’s likely to be more market churn during this shortened trading week.
As for cryptos...
The bitcoin bulls were out in force once again pushing bitcoin up near all-time highs close to $110,000 – a gain of over 16% on the year as we’re continuing to see a lane for bitcoin and different behavior for the entire second and third tier of tokens. President Trump’s meme coin was lower after last week’s dinner for top holders and Ether and others barely budged during the week.
Here’s a look at where they stand.
- Bitcoin: +6% last week +16% YTD
- Ether: +1% last week -24% YTD
- BitwiseETF (Top 10 cryptos): +3%, -1% YTD
I can’t value cryptos because they have no inherent value. Stocks, though? They’ve got bones. Let’s break down the S&P 500:
- Current P/E: 27.64
- Historic Avg. P/E: 16.14
Translation: On earnings alone, the maximum downside risk is 42% drop from here—3% less than last week as stock prices were lower while fundamentals were unchanged. The market is still slightly historically expensive; however, we have seen an 6% improvement in the fundamental value of the market during this market cycle
So, What’s Your Move?
If a 42% dip wouldn’t derail your life, you’re probably golden. If it would? Time to call a pro and build a plan that doesn’t leave you sweating bullets—or making mistakes.