How Low Can Stocks & Crypto Go? June 16th, 2025 - Driven By Braman Motorcars
Record highs are in sight—Here’s What You Need to Know
Bottom Line: My first rule of money... Never let your money and emotions cross paths. This isn’t a doomscroll though after the past week you might feel that you’re living through one. This story is a weekly wake-up call to show you the near-worst-case scenario for stocks and crypto. Why? So, you can plan your financial future with a cool head, not a racing pulse. The odds of a near-worst case outcome almost certainly won’t happen, however if your plan accounts for it – it can help you manage through even the most trying markets like what we’re experiencing right now.
The US stock market is history’s ultimate wealth-building beast. Crypto? It’s minted millionaires from early believers. Fact: Over 90% of the time, investors who try to “time” the market end up poorer than if they just stuck to their original investments. This is about dodging that trap.
Here’s how the big three indexes are faring in 2025 so far:
- DOW: flat (-1% last week)
- S&P 500: +2% (flat last week)
- Nasdaq: +1% (-1% last week)
The stock market’s winning streak was stopped last week amid a strong selloff of Friday amid concerns over what might become of the Israel-Iran conflict over the weekend. The bottom line is that investors don’t like uncertainty, and war adds a lot of it. Something else it does in that critical region for energy – is raise oil prices on fears of supply disruptions around the world. About 21% of the world’s oil supply moves through the Straight of Hormuz, making it the world’s single most important location. Entering this week oil prices are the highest they’ve been since February.
Obviously, what becomes of the increased middle-eastern conflict will be in focus this week as the Federal Reserve will be as well. The Fed will announce its policy decision pertaining to interest rates on Wednesday, which is expected to be no movement once again. The markets currently have priced in a 99.9% chance of no change this week – despite recent CPI and PPI readings coming in below expectations. Aside from the excuse of tariff uncertainty, that the Fed’s been wrong about to date, the recent spike in oil prices provides another tangible excuse to stand pat as energy prices at the consumer and producer level will be heading higher, at least in the near term.
As for cryptos...
Bitcoin backed away from what was close to an all-time high recently, near $110,000, and it was a mixed bag for digital tokens generally. Here’s a look at where they stand.
- Bitcoin: flat last week +12% YTD
- Ether: +1% last week -24% YTD
- BitwiseETF (Top 10 cryptos): +3%, last week -1% YTD
I can’t value cryptos because they have no inherent value. Stocks, though? They’ve got bones. Let’s break down the S&P 500:
- Current P/E: 28.52
- Historic Avg. P/E: 16.15
Translation: On earnings alone, the maximum downside risk is a 43% drop from here—1% less than last week as stock prices fell slightly while fundamentals were unchanged. The market is still slightly historically expensive; however, we have seen a 5% improvement in the fundamental value of the market during this market cycle.
So, What’s Your Move?
If a 43% dip wouldn’t derail your life, you’re probably golden. If it would? Time to call a pro and build a plan that doesn’t leave you sweating bullets—or making mistakes.