Liberation Day Meets Independence Day – July 3rd, 2025
Takeaway #1: Liberation Day Meets Independence Day
Yeah, so technically Liberation Day took place on April 2nd, was widely misunderstood, led to a short term freak out that created historically great buying opportunities in the financial markets and Independence Day is tomorrow, is generally understood but also probably underappreciated. Anyway, in thinking about Independence Day this year – liberation also came to mind because when I think about where we were as a country a year ago, I can’t help but feel liberated. In my top 3 takeaways a year ago, my message was that Independence Day was 125 days away with sanity that would be restored in 201 days. Yes, we were at a point where I was literally counting down the days until Election Day and Inauguration Day when Dementia Joe would finally go. Among the top stories a year ago... Joe pledged that he was staying in the presidential race after his botched debate, he’d just agreed to give billions more to Ukraine, because you know, why not, right? Also, the NY judge in the Stormy Freaking Daniels Hush Money case announced that he’d delay Trump’s sentencing following his conviction. Oh, and an average of nearly 10,000 illegal immigrants were still pouring into the country per day. That’s the place we were in a year ago today. So that at present, the top concern we have right now is whether President Trump is going to be able to sign the legislation formerly known as the BBB tomorrow for Independence Day is a truly great thing. When the biggest issue you have coming out of Washington is wondering just how big your tax cuts will be, you know we’re in a much better place.
Takeaway #2: How good of a place?
The current inflation rate at 2.4% is the lowest it’s been since Trump was one month removed from having previously been president of the United States and by the time you factor in wage growth at 4.3% most recently, the average American is finally getting ahead again – by nearly 2% - the best quality of life improvement we’ve seen since Trump was last in the precedency. The S&P 500 is 13% higher, and 401k balances and savings rates have hit record highs. Related as you hit the road for Independence Day, gas prices are 40 cents per gallon lower than a year ago today. $190 billion dollars in government waste has been DOGEd which equals $1,180 per federal tax payer. On immigration... The Laken Riley Act is law. Attempted border crossings are down 93%, access into the United States is down by 99%. The CBP One Home app that was used by the Biden administration to fly nearly 1 million illegal immigrants into the United States is now being used to fly illegal immigrants out of the United States. On that note, ICE’s daily detentions are up 53% over a year ago. And surprise, surprise as detentions rise, crime is falling. Homicides are down by 21% so far this year, robberies are too, property crime is 16% lower and violent crime in general is down by 11% too. The biggest impact? Often the biggest cities with the biggest illegal immigration problems like Denver and Auroa, Colorado. This is of absolutely no surprise as the non-citizen crime rate last year accounted for 24% of all drug trafficking, 25% of all property crimes, 28% of all fraud among other things, and non-citizens crime rates had become 914% higher than the average legal citizen. In fact, during the four years of the Biden administration total crimes committed by non-citizens rose by 626%.
Takeaway #3: As for foreign policy...
After 41 years of development towards a nuclear weapon President Trump crippled Iran’s nuclear program by dropping 14 MOPs bringing about relative peace in the Middle East – including brokering a potential ceasefire between Israel and Hamas in real-time. There’s been no provocation of takeovers of Taiwan by China and Little Rocket Man’s hasn’t been firing rockets. President Trump has renegotiated trade deals with China, England, Vietnam on much more favorable terms which include collecting 78% more tariff revenue for the Treasury (aprox. $130 billion) compared to the same time last year. And culturally here at home over a fifth of companies that had DEI programs have ended them with most having at least minimized them and you also probably noticed that June was far less queer this year. So yeah, you think back to where we were as a country a year ago today with a dementia riddled president, open borders, rampant crime, high inflation, raging wars and a Trump conviction and Independence Day weekend is just about here but this year I feel liberated too. President Trump has had an incredible five and a half months and he’s well on his way to making America Great Again, Again.