How Low Can Stocks & Crypto Go? September 29th, 2025
A future Fed rate cut is now in focus
Bottom Line: My first rule of money... Never let your money and emotions cross paths. This story is a weekly wake-up call to show you the near-worst-case scenario for stocks and crypto. Why? So, you can plan your financial future with a cool head, not a racing pulse. The odds of a near-worst case outcome almost certainly won’t happen, however if your plan accounts for it – it can help you manage through even the most trying markets like what we’ve experienced this year.
The US stock market is history’s ultimate wealth-building beast. Crypto? It’s minted millionaires from early believers. Fact: Over 90% of the time, investors who try to “time” the market end up poorer than if they just stuck to their original investments. This is about dodging that trap.
Here’s how the big three indexes are faring in 2025 so far:
- DOW: +9% (slightly higher last week)
- S&P 500: +13% (slightly lower last week)
- Nasdaq: +17% (-1% last week)
The stock market winning streak was snapped as seasonality may have begun to catch up with the market last week. As I mentioned in last week’s report... It will be interesting to watch the market’s direction from here as we’re in the seasonally worst time of the year for stocks historically without a clear near-term catalyst beyond inflation/rate discussions. During the week a few important economic indicators pointed towards inflation that was still a bit higher than the Federal Reserve’s 2% target rate but that was in line with expectations. Also, a massive upward revision to the second quarter growth rate, which showed the economy growing at 3.8% during the first full quarter of President Trump’s second term raised optimism about the economy. Investors are still pricing two additional rate cuts into the market through the end of the year with the next quarter point cut expected in October.
The focus of markets this week will first be on congress as we wait to see if there will be a partial government shutdown entering the government’s new fiscal year on Wednesday. Secondly, it’s a big week for jobs data as the ADP Report will be released on Wednesday and the government jobs report on Friday – if there isn’t a partial government shutdown. It figures to be a volatile week for the financial markets.
As for cryptos...
Here’s a look at where they stand.
- Bitcoin: -1%, +16% YTD
- Ether: -4% last week, +19% YTD
- BitwiseETF (Top 10 cryptos): -5%, last week +20% YTD
I can’t value cryptos because they have no inherent value. Stocks, though? They’ve got bones. Let’s break down the S&P 500:
- Current P/E: 30.76
- Historic Avg. P/E: 16.17
Translation: On earnings alone, the maximum downside risk is a 47% drop from here—slightly lower than last week as prices fell faster than fundamentals. The market is historically expensive as it’s priced near the highest multiple of the current bull market cycle.
So, What’s Your Move?
If a 47% dip wouldn’t derail your life, you’re probably golden. If it would? Time to call a pro and build a plan that doesn’t leave you sweating bullets—or making mistakes.