Trump Is Threading the Economic Needle & Illegal Healthcare – Top 3 Takeaways – March 13th, 2025

Takeaway #1: Threading the economic needle

Trump’s done it again. Yesterday’s uber important Consumer Price Index Report wasn’t just good news for President Trump, and for our economy, it most importantly was good news for you. As I mentioned in yesterday’s takeaways... President Trump masterfully used tariffs to achieve his desired economic policies during his first administration. That was also during a period of historically low inflation. That’s not the case this time around with the inflation rate checking in at 3% in January- or already 1% higher than what the Federal Reserve considers to be sustainable. However, if yesterday’s report showed a declining rate of inflation during Trump’s first full month in office, which included the implementation of tariffs; he’d be in business. Well, boom! Trumps in business as he’s managed to defy expectations again. The expectations were for the headline inflation rate to have fallen to 2.9% annually in February. As I mentioned in setting this up... a read of 2.9% or lower would-be encouraging news. 3% or higher and he and we would have problems. But there were no problems here. New president, new tariffs, a lower inflation rate once again as consumer inflation fell to 2.8% during Trump’s first full month in office. That’s a great start for Trump 2.0’s economic policy. But when it comes to improving affordability what’s most important is what’s happening closest to home. For four years as bad as ‘Bidenomics was in creating a 40+ year high inflation rate nationally – it was actually much worse locally with South Florida having the highest inflation rate in the country for the better part of three years...but not anymore. Most recently the inflation rate for the Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach metro checked in at 2.8% - or exactly in line with what we’ve seen most recently nationally. The trade war is still raging, Trump’s tariffs still have some economists bracing for the worst, but from West Palm Beach to Washington, D.C. - the early returns were especially encouraging because out of the gate President Trump appears to be threading the economic needle once again and that may mean...

Takeaway #2 Lower Interest Rates

If inflation is on its way down, than interest rates should follow. Wednesday’s inflation news could mean that the Federal Reserve revisits interest rate policies sooner than later. Already what we’ve seen over the past couple of weeks is that mortgage rates have come down from their peak. And as mortgage rates are slowly sliding demand is starting to significantly rise. Last week demand for mortgages was 90% higher than the same week a year ago and the demand to purchase a new home was 4% higher than a year ago. This is important because what it shows is that there’s pent up demand in the US economy that will step in as there’s added affordability. The concern for much of this week economically is that we could be pacing towards a recession. However, this data suggests that there is another tier to this economy just waiting for an opportunity. Lower interest rates, brought about by a lower rate of inflation, will be key to helping people seize these opportunities once again. We’re a long way from being able to declare victory over ‘Bidenflation, and thus the ability to have substantially lower interest rates, but the early signs are that at the point where mortgage rates do come down considerably there’s there potential for another housing boom to take place with people who’ve stayed in homes, due to having a low mortgage rate, who’ll jump at the chance to move given the chance. Likewise, there appears to be a deep bench of renters that will jump at the chance to buy when mortgage rates make it more affordable for them to do so.

Takeaway #3 Illegal Healthcare

In early February I brought you the updated cost of illegal immigration to you over the past year. In case you missed it... The updated congressional estimate checked in most recently at a cost of $182 billion...that means the updated cost to you is $1,352. You can think about that one as you file your taxes this year. So, the bottom line is that over the past year we paid $1,352 to facilitate more than a third of all federal crimes (and likely a similar percentage of state and local offenses as well). But that’s also independent of the illegal immigrant impact on inflation. The inflation impact of illegal immigration (led by an increase in housing costs) has led to an average increase in the cost of living of $288 per month. That brings last year’s cost of illegal immigration, factoring in inflation, to a total of $4,808 for you! That’s fun, isn’t it? Who wouldn’t want to burn through 48 hundred bucks a year to facilitate over a third of all crime and just to generally support illegal immigration, right? But what there’s more! Because in Florida we just found out how much we paid for the healthcare of illegal immigrants in our state last year - $660 million. According to the Florida Agency for Health Care Administration, a total of 67,700 illegal immigrants made emergency room visits racking up huge bills that were once again paid for by you and me. That comes to an additional $77.19 per Florida household. So, you can add that to previously totaled tab. And of course, there’s also the potential that legal Floridians aren’t able to receive timely emergency care because resources were directed to the tens of thousands of illegal immigrants receiving care. I’m sure the local news outlets who claim to be looking out for you will jump into investigative reporting to see how many Floridians died last year waiting for care delivered to those who were here illegally...in addition to covering the actual cost of illegal immigration to you (that of course they never do). They’re too busy finding new politically correct ways to not offend illegal immigrants. Take for example this lead line to a story yesterday... An undocumented immigrant of the Tren de Aragua gang was arrested in Orlando. That stands in contrast of course to what, the legally documented members of the Tren de Aragua gang? So yes, the next time you look at a medical bill and wonder how come it came to be so much? You can feel good knowing that you’re paying for illegals too. Which is yet one more reason why all illegal immigrants, not just those who commit additional crimes once they’re here...should be deported. Given the costs of illegal immigrants to us...Tell me again how they’re not effectively stealing from us every day they’re here?

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