Comers, Goers & What Comes Next – Top 3 Takeaways – January 7th, 2025

Comers... Trump and the cavalry. Monday brought about a drama free certification of President-elect Trump’s historic victory in stark contrast to what played out four years before. The result is that the final step in the electoral process is now done and thirteen days from now President Trump will join Grover Cleveland as the only former president to complete the ultimate comeback. But the similarities end there. Grover was a Democrat who’s vote share was less in his successful comeback than it was when he originally won (48.8% to 46% of the vote). Trump by contrast has never been more popular having increased his share of the vote by 3.8% between 2016 and 2024. And it’s Trump’s resounding win and still growing popularity that has his incoming administration especially well positioned. To give you an idea of the momentum that Trump has coming into his second term...Trump’s highest average approval rating during his first term in office was 47% just as COVID hit in 2020. Trump’s approval stands at 52% today – with 53% who approve of his handling of the transition. That’s notable because both percentages are meaningfully higher than his popular vote share (49.9%) in November. What that means is that Trump 2.0 continues to win over people who didn’t vote for him just a few months ago. What it also means is that Trump’s already broad mandate to enact his agenda, continues to grow broader. The first sign of this showing up happened on Friday when Trump’s influence resulted in House Speaker Mike Johnson winning reelection on the first vote. Where it’s next set to show up will be in the Senate with Trump’s cabinet confirmations. By Inauguration Day eight years ago only two of President Trump’s nominees had completed the senate hearing process. Next week, the Senate has already scheduled ten hearings for Trump’s nominees, or nearly half of the total that require senate confirmation, and it’s possible that more could come prior to Inauguration Day as well. As I’ve mentioned, it took Trump 97 days to get his entire cabinet into place the first time around – and that was despite Republicans having the senate majority. Trump’s nominees in his first administration faced the largest share of "no” votes of any president in American history. With his strong and growing popularity, he’s currently on track to potentially have his cabinet in place within just a matter of days of becoming president. The broader the mandate, the easier it is for middle of the road senate Republicans in blue or swing states to get on board the Trump train. Trump’s coming and the cavalry is too. Donald Trump may go from having had the second most drawn out cabinet confirmation process in American history the first time around, to potentially having the shortest this time around. His America First plan is coming together perfectly, and the more people are learning about it, the more they’re supportive of it. Conversely you have the...
Goers... We’ve known for some time that Joe Biden will be retired in 13 days. There’s a case to be made based upon how often he’s MIA, he’s effectively already started. Voters also saw to it that VP Kamala Harris would sent on her way out of Washington at the same time, but not before she played a role that few have had to do in presiding over her presidential election loss. And by few, I mean three. The last time a sitting vice president lost as a presidential candidate and had to preside over their loss, was Al Gore 24 years ago. Prior to Gore, you’d have to go back to Hubert Humphrey in 1969 and then Richard Nixon in 1961. That’s it. That's the complete list. Now of course, in Nixon’s case he eventually won a presidential race. It’s safe to say that’s not in Kamala’s future. What is? I’m not so sure, but it won’t be taking place in Washington D.C. anytime soon. And as for another goer yesterday... none other than Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. It’s in many ways apropos that the day Donald Trump and JD Vance were certified to ascend to the highest positions of power, Justin Trudeau announced that he’ll soon be leaving power. The highly unpopular Canadian PM and leader of the Liberal Party being jettisoned north of the border, on the same day Joe Biden and Kamala Harris were politically retired as well, only adds to the feeling that we could be on the brink of what we experienced in the 1980’s. For much of the past four years I pointed out that President Jimmy Carter’s historic failures as president brought about the Reagan Revolution reshaping the American electorate and creating a young generation of conservative voters. But of course, the political remake of the 80’s era didn’t just play out in the US. We saw conservative politics sweep through England and parts of Europe and Canada as well. In fact, by 1984 the Conservative Party candidate for Prime Minister ousted Justin’s dad with the second largest win in Canadian history. Inflation, geopolitical failures, general incompetence – there are so many similarities between the Carter and Biden administrations. And as you look at not just our country’s election results, but increasingly what we’re starting to see play out around the world, there’s very much an 80’s vibe to what’s happening here. Right down to a Prime Minister named Trudeau being shown the door. And...
As for what comes next? We all know that Donald Trump intends to Make America Great Again (and who knows, that could include Canada too...after all Trump Truthed this message just yesterday: Many people in Canada LOVE being the 51st State. The United States can no longer suffer the massive Trade Deficits and Subsidies that Canada needs to stay afloat. Justin Trudeau knew this, and resigned. If Canada merged with the U.S., there would be no Tariffs, taxes would go way down, and they would be TOTALLY SECURE from the threat of the Russian and Chinese Ships that are constantly surrounding them. Together, what a great Nation it would be!!!). When was the last time that it was necessary to Make America Great Again? When Ronald Reagan was sworn in. If history repeats itself, or at least rhymes as it’s historically been known to do... We could be set up for a great ride for a decade or perhaps even two.