It’s Election Day in Four Key States - Top 3 Takeaways – November 7th, 2023
- Election Day. We’re now under a year away from Election Day. But before we vote for the next President of the United States, we’ll go through a series of Election Days. Today is Municipal Election Day for many Florida cities, including in Vero Beach and Sebastian, where voter turnout stands at 11% via vote by mail ballots thus far. In Florida we have our presidential primary elections in March – which will include municipal elections in many communities. Next August it’ll be our state’s primary elections. But today in four states it’s the biggest Election Day they’ll have until next November and for the country today it will provide the greatest indication about how we are trending politically. Voters in Kentucky, Mississippi, New Jersey and Virginia go to the polls today and the news that happens in the elections within these states won’t stay within these states. It will be magnified across the country as a potential sign of what’s to come. Already in this cycle Republicans have flipped a governor's seat from blue to red emphatically in Louisiana by over 25-points. Is that a sign of what’s to come or was that a one-off in a state that’s been somewhat reliably red? There are four numbers I'm watching, one in each state, that will be a sign of whether a red wave is building or whether a blue wall is holding. In Mississippi the number is 5.1%. That’s the margin Republican governor Tate Reeves won by four years ago. Reeves has a net negative approval rating and he’s running against a relative of Elvis Presley today. If Democrats are to gain ground in the South in this cycle this is where it would happen. A re-election win by Reeves by greater than his margin four years ago is a strong sign for the Republican brand. A narrower win by Reeves or obviously an outright loss would speak volumes about the prospect of Democrats in key southern battle ground states like Georgia and North Carolina heading into next year’s cycle. The number I’m watching in New Jersey is 22. That’s how many more Democrats are elected than Republicans in the New Jersey state assembly. A reliably blue state, there’s not an expectation of Republicans flipping the legislature, but the question is whether they can gain ground. With occasional exceptions, what we’ve seen in recent years is that blue states have trended bluer with time. If Democrats can hold or even add to their control of New Jersey's state government, it could be an indication of that continued trend in northeastern states. Conversely, If Republicans can gain ground in a reliably blue state, it could be a key indication that voters in northeastern battlegrounds like Pennsylvania, New Hampshire and Maine, could be back in play for Republicans entering next year. In Virginia the number I’m watching is 4. That’s the advantage Democrats have in the state senate, which currently is the only body in state government Democrats hold control over. Could Republicans flip the state senate over to GOP control giving Republicans complete control over Virginia’s state government? Governor Glynn Youngkin has forgone a potential presidential bid to go all-in on it and it’s a test of his personal brand within the state in addition to a sign of whether there’s meaningful momentum for Republicans within the state heading into 2024. The last presidential election cycle Virginian's voted for a Republican for President was George W. Bush in 2004. It will have been twenty years entering next year’s election cycle. Joe Biden beat Donald Trump by over 10-points in 2020.
- If Virginia goes red in its state elections, there’s the potential that it’s back in play for Republicans in a presidential election. There are many more potential paths to victory for any Republican presidential candidate if Viriginia reenters the conversation. Conversely, if Glenn Youngkin, a popular governor in the state goes all in and Democrats win...potentially even flipping the state House blue...it would be a clear sign that Viriginia’s long-term trend remains the Democrats’ friend. The final number I’m keeping an eye on today in Kentucky is the number 1. As in one vote. Democrat Governor Andy Beshear won Kentucky’s gubernatorial election by just 4-tenths of one percent four years ago. His reelection bid is a true tossup today. For Democrats a win would mean that they’ve potentially established a formula for running candidates in what are generally socially conservative states which could have implications in congressional races across the south and Midwest next year. A win by Republicans would mean they would have gone two for two in flipping governors in this year’s election cycle and three for three overall (if Reeves wins in Mississippi). There’s always a risk of reading too much into elections that precede other elections. So much is likely to change between now and next November that’s not even on our radar right now. With that said trends are trends and after record setting wins for Republicans in Louisiana recently, and strong polling for Republicans generally (especially for Donald Trump in a potential presidential rematch with Joe Biden), what happens today across a diverse cross-section of states...
- Holds the potential to clue us in as to the mood of the country politically. While Republicans won the 2022 midterm election cycle highlighted by a record setting performance in Florida, the cycle was still a disappointment with Trump-backed candidates in key races falling short. A year later has the tide changed sufficiently for Republicans to come out on the winning end of the numbers I’ve identified as being keys tonight, or are Democrats set to outperform yet again? Lots of people like to say that every election cycle is seemingly the most important of our lives. As I say there are two sides to stories and one side to facts. For that reason, hyperbole has never been my style. But I do think that the upcoming election cycle is different. And I do now think that the facts support the next presidential election cycle being the most important of my lifetime. Previously the 1980 election cycle held that distinction. From our country’s wide-open borders to potentially being on the brink of World War III, the stakes are currently the highest they’ve been since the Cuban missile crisis at a minimum and World War II more broadly. Today’s Election Day in four states but with potentially bigger stakes in terms of the direction this country is headed. I’m hoping for a course correction that continues to build tonight.