The Anatomy of a Swing State – The Biden vs. Trump Rematch – May 16th
Bottom Line: With both major party nominations for President wrapped up and an apparent 2020 presidential rematch ahead of us it’s time for this week’s Anatomy of a Swing State update. In this series I analyze traditional swing states which will likely prove pivotal in determining the presidential outcome in November. This cycle we’ll have a rematch for the first time since 1956 and the seventh time overall. History has generally proved favorable for the challenger in presidential rematches. The loser in the first election matchup has won the rematch on four occasions with incumbent president winning out just twice. Due to the rematch, let’s first start with an overview of where the candidates stand today compared to Election Day 2020 using the RealClear Politics polling average nationally.
- Election Day 2020: Biden +7.2%
- May 15th, 2024: Trump +1.1% (2.7% in a 5-way matchup)
What we currently see is an 8.3% shift to the advantage of Donald Trump. This type of swing in the electorate would clearly have a profound impact on the election outcome if it were to be held on Election Day. These are the states that Joe Biden won by 8-points or less in 2020:
- Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin
Those are currently the key swing states to watch in this cycle. The expectation would be that Trump would be able to retain the states he won four years ago with the question being whether he’d be able to flip enough swing states back his way from President Biden to win the election.
After two weeks of slightly improving polls for Trump we didn’t see any meaningful changes over the past week. Given how little movement there has been over the past six months it’s not surprising that we’re now seeing very little or no movement week-to-week. Perhaps most notably we’re not seeing meaningful movements in the polls while the New York State Trump trial continues to play out.
As of today, the RealClear average of state polls shows...
- Biden retaining: Minnesota, New Hampshire
- Trump flipping: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin
As of today, Trump is shown in the lead with a 312 to 226 vote advantage in the Electoral College – the same as last week. No doubt a lot will change between today and Election Day in November, however the former and perhaps future President of the United States is currently the best positioned to win.