NOAA’s Hurricane Forecast & Freedom Isn’t Free - Top 3 Takeaways – May 24th, 2024
- No matter what you call it... NOAA’s prediction for this year’s hurricane season wasn’t labeled “explosive” or “extreme” as other forecasters before them had done...it was labeled “above-normal”. But essentially the hurricane season forecast NOAA produced is the same. For example, AccuWeather which famously used the adjective “explosive” to categorize their expectation for this season (or infamously, based upon one’s perspective...I’ve heard from multiple meteorological peeps who’ve resented their characterization as an effort to sensationalize and gain attention), is projected to produce 20-25 named storms this year. NOAA’s forecast is essentially the same with a range of 17-25 named storms projected. As for hurricanes, NOAA believes we’ll see 8-13 of them this year with 4 to 7 of them being major. Essentially all signs point in a very similar direction. And that direction likely means we’ll spend a lot of time over the next six months checking the National Hurricane Center’s website as hurricane season officially kicks off a week from Saturday. Which, incidentally, yesterday if you looked at the NHC’s map you’d have seen the first tropical disturbance of the season. This morning it’s gone. According to the National Weather Service there’s an 85% chance we’ll experience an “above-normal” hurricane season with only a 10% chance of normal tropical activity and just a 5% chance it comes in below the historically norms. Key to this conversation is this commentary provided as the explanation for why NOAA expects to see so much activity: As one of the strongest El Ninos ever observed nears its end, NOAA scientists predict a quick transition to La Nina conditions, which are conducive to Atlantic hurricane activity because La Nina tends to lessen wind shear in the tropics. At the same time, abundant oceanic heat content in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea creates more energy to fuel storm development. This hurricane season also features the potential for an above-normal west African monsoon, which can produce African easterly waves that seed some of the strongest and longer-lived Atlantic storms. Finally, light trade winds allow hurricanes to grow in strength without the disruption of strong wind shear, and also minimize ocean cooling. These themes are consistent with what we’ve seen elsewhere and what we’ve discussed on this show in previous months. Notably absent from their forecast discussion was a reference to any potential impact from Saharan dust. A strong Saharan dust cloud is currently spanning across most of the Atlantic and helps mitigation tropical formations from occurring but evidently NOAA doesn’t believe it’ll stick around long enough to make a long-term positive difference. We shall see. There was also this nugget that was new to NOAA’s hurricane projections:
- Human-caused climate change is warming our ocean globally and in the Atlantic basin, and melting ice on land, leading to sea level rise, which increases the risk of storm surge. Sea level rise represents a clear human influence on the damage potential from a given hurricane. It’s the first time NOAA has cited “human-caused” climate change in their hurricane forecast report and they further drove home the point they wanted to get across by citing sea level rise as “a clear human influence on the damage potential”. There’s a time and place for those types of discussions. I’m not sure official hurricane forecasting is the appropriate time and place because there’s nothing specifically actionable attached to the talking point. If, for example, we become better stewards of the environment that’s a good thing, but is that going to change this year’s hurricane forecast? Is that going to impact how we should prepare for this season? Whether they’re right or wrong is beside the point. Official severe weather forecasting isn’t the appropriate place for advancing agendas. But back to the crux of the forecast. Last year NOAA said there would be 5-9 hurricanes – there were 7. NOAA said 1-4 would be major – we had 3. They’re really good at what they do which means we do need to be prepared for a “above-normal” hurricane season...while perhaps hoping for an extended period of Saharan dust while we’re at it.
- Freedom isn't free. Of all federal holidays none is more solemn or as significant as Memorial Day. Increasingly, the purpose and significance of the day of remembrance is blurred in our society. As Americans, we all have a responsibility on Memorial Day to pay homage to those who granted us freedom with their lives. It started with the 4,435 Americans who died in the American Revolution and has continued with over 7,000 Americans who've sacrificed their lives fighting terrorism around the world since 9/11. In the nearly 248 years as a country, over 1.5 million Americans have sacrificed their lives for freedom. Our freedom. The least we can do is take a little time one day a year to honor their sacrifice. After World War II, and at the time of the official declaration of Memorial Day as a federal day of remembrance in 1967, approximately 12% of the US population had served in the military. For those who survived the Great War and The Forgotten War, they didn't need a reminder of the sacrifices made by those who didn't return home. Today, under 1% of Americans serve. It's become easy for most to take for granted the freedom they enjoy. Over 80% of the world's population isn't free and the median per capita income outside of the United States remains under $5,000 per year. Many in our society lack perspective because they never had it, weren't taught it or simply place politics disproportionately above what's most important. It's important that we all do our part to ensure we have perspective and share it with those in our lives. Freedom isn't free. It never has been. It's paved with the blood of more than 1.5 million Americans who laid down their lives in service to our country. It’s our duty as Americans to honor them and remember them this Memorial Day.