Wind, Water & Exposure – Hurricane Milton’s Scorecard – Top 3 Takeaways – October 11th, 2024
- Wind. It’s human nature to pay the most attention to the category of the hurricane and the center of the projected path...just like it’s human nature to look at an accident on the side of the road. Both of those situations can lead to problems. Yes, you should account for wind risks with any hurricane, including Helene, that may impact us. But that’s not the only wind consideration. As we’ve seen on Florida’s east coast with previous hurricanes that have made landfall on Florida’s Gulf coast, one of the most significant risks that come with hurricanes are tornadoes. Not only are tornadoes possible in hurricanes, but they’re also likely, and for those outside of the point of impact, are often the greatest wind risk faced. Two years ago, Hurricane Ian spawned the most tornadoes we’d seen for a Florida hurricane since Irma in 2017 – another hurricane that made landfall on Florida’s west coast but that brought the east coast numerous tornadoes in the process. According to the National Weather Service, tornadoes in hurricanes are most likely to occur 50 to 250 miles from the eye of the storm – which became the biggest story associated with Hurricane Milton as 126 tornado warnings were issued in Florida by the National Weather Service during the entirety of its impact. The total number of confirmed tornadoes will take additional time for officials to confirm. By way of comparison Hurricane Helene produced six in North and South Carolina. The previous record holder for confirmed tornadoes came in 2004’s Hurricane Ivan (117). Milton’s Hurricane winds extended out only 35 miles from the eye of the storm compared to 60 for Helene with tropical storm winds extending out only 135 miles compared to 345 miles for Helene. The majority of the tornadic impact of Milton took place 150 to 200 miles from the eye of the Hurricane. Sustained winds tend to get the most attention, however they’re only part of the equation. In recorded US history 8% of deaths attributed to hurricanes are due to impacts from sustained winds, 3% of deaths are from tornadoes. As of now, 5 of the 16 deaths associated with Milton, are in St. Lucie County due to a tornado.
- Water. Water is to hurricanes what a center is to a quarterback. Without the center the quarterback isn’t getting the ball. The quarterback gets all the attention, and the center is only noticed if there’s a missed block or fumbled snap. After Hurricane Helene there’s likely no doubt in anyone’s minds about the devastating effects of water during a hurricane. Helene’s death toll currently stands at over 230 and still rising. Almost all of the deaths are due to water – most in North and South Carolina, after the storm had lost had lost hurricane strength. The catastrophe storm surge feared with Milton thankfully didn’t materialize as surge topped out at around 5 feet as opposed to the potential for 15 feet had it traveled directly through Tampa Bay. Seldom do we pay attention to the water risk to the extent we do wind risk, especially with a sensational storm that topped out with 180 mph winds, but water is almost always the biggest issue. Still, 27% of all deaths have occurred from flooding and 49% from storm surge according to the National Hurricane Center. On Florida’s east coast we don’t have a meaningful risk of storm surge, but flood advisories are out, as areas prone to flooding are likely to see some of it happen. We’ve already been saturated for a few days leading up to the event increasing the likelihood of localized flooding. Florida’s Gulf coast is obviously a vastly different story. In most scenarios that has been the deadliest risk for Floridians resulting from hurricanes...not what happens during the impact of the storm but what happens after impact.
- Exposure. Perhaps the most underappreciated impact of a hurricane is what happens after it’s over. And for Floridians it’s proven to be the most dangerous - time and again. Take 2017’s Hurricane Irma for example. 92 people died in the US due to the storm, but only ten during the storm. The rest of those deaths are referred to as “indirect”. The majority of indirect deaths are due to the varying effects of exposure and often a bit of carelessness. Warm weather and no power for extended periods of time have proven to be a problem historically. For the purpose of Hurricane Milton, this isn’t a concern for those on Florida’s east coast, only near the point of impact at landfall tonight. But it does tend to be among the biggest issues for those who opt to stay as opposed to evacuating hard hit areas. It's something to be mindful of if you have friends and family on the other coast and potentially in harm’s way.