Q&A of the Day – Should Canada Become The 51st State?
Each day I feature a listener question sent by one of these methods.
Email: brianmudd@iheartmedia.com
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Today’s Entry: Good morning Brian, I am a US and Canadian citizen, born in Canada. I would like to see Canada become part of the United States but like you said that their liberalism is really far left and their conservativism is left of our Republican (MAGA) Party.
Bottom Line: There are no shortage of interesting ideas that President-elect Donald Trump has floated since November’s election win. Perhaps surprisingly, the most provocative of his ideas haven’t been domestic policy related, but rather an expressed interest in an expansionist foreign policy approach. The three leading ideas floated by Trump are to reclaim control of the Panama Canal, buy Greenland and to make Canada the 51st state. By now even the most cynical Trump detractors have learned that many of his controversial statements are said for comedic purposes and/or as negotiation tactics... But not always. Remember, not many people took Donald Trump’s presidential aspirations seriously until he officially announced a run in 2015. Similarly, few still considered him to be a serious presidential candidate after he entered the Republican primary with his first poll showing only 1% support.
While much of what Trump says is said for effect, you might say, part of the Art of the Deal, there are times when surprising statements of his should be taken literally. Should Trump’s suggestion that Canada become the 51st state be one of them? What would the implications of Canada becoming a state be? And to address today’s question how much more liberal are Canadians than Americans?
On Monday, President-elect Trump Truthed this message: Many people in Canada LOVE being the 51st State. The United States can no longer suffer the massive Trade Deficits and Subsidies that Canada needs to stay afloat. Justin Trudeau knew this, and resigned. If Canada merged with the U.S., there would be no Tariffs, taxes would go way down, and they would be TOTALLY SECURE from the threat of the Russian and Chinese Ships that are constantly surrounding them. Together, what a great Nation it would be!!! I’ve reported, and you can decide whether you think that statement is completely tongue in cheek, a negotiation tactic pertaining to trade policies, or an idea he’s serious about pursuing. But let’s say for a second that President Trump is serious about attempting to make Canada a state. Let’s break down the implications.
Canada’s population most recently was reported at 40.1 million people. The country’s population most closely compares to California which most recently had a population of just under 39 million. As a result, in this hypothetical exercise, Canada would begin its status as the 51st state, as the most influential state. California currently has 54 electoral college votes. This is an inexact example, because if Canada were added as a new state adjustments would be made with all states, but for ease of understanding in today’s terms, Canada would have the electoral college influence of approximately 57 votes. California also has 52 US House districts. Under the current alignment, Canada would have approximately 54. And that takes us to the partisan political considerations...
The listener who submitted today’s note is spot on. As he suggested, Canada’s Liberal Party is to the left of the Democrat Party and the Conservative Party is likewise to the left of the Republican Party. How much so?
In December of 2022, following the US midterm elections, the Environics Institute studied the political differences between Americans and Canadians. They even asked Canadians at the time about whether they’d want to become part of the United States. What was the result?
Canada’s Liberal Party averages being 2% to the left of the Democrat Party on key issues. Meanwhile, Canada’s ‘Conservative Party’ is an average of 32% to the left of Republicans. To put this in perspective, Canada’s so-called conservatives are 8% to the left of U.S. Independents. In fact, they’re only an average of 23% away from holding the same positions as Democrats. In other words, Canada’s ‘conservatives’ are closer to Democrats on the issues than Republicans. It’s quite clear that politically, Canada joining the union would not serve President Trump’s political interests. Based on the current ideological preferences of Canadians, they would be a reliably blue state producing two Democrat Senators and a solid congressional majority of Democrats to the House.
And what’s their view on potentially becoming a state too? When asked if they’d like to join the union...only 8% are supportive of joining the US with 90% opposing. So yes, given these realities, it's quite clear that Trump’s Canadian posturing is a trade negotiation tactic. Now the Panama Canal and Greenland on the other hand...