It’s Election Day & The Economic State of Play – Top 3 Takeaways – March 11th, 2025
Takeaway #1: Your Vote Hits Home Today
It’s Election Day—not for everyone, but for many in Palm Beach County! Twelve of PBC’s 39 municipalities— If you live in Boynton Beach, Golf, Highland Beach, Jupiter, Lake Park, Lake Worth Beach, Lantana, Loxahatchee Groves, Pahokee, Palm Beach Gardens, Riviera Beach or Royal Palm Beach – this means you. As I’m inclined to say, all elections have consequences, however it’s those closest to you which often have the biggest impact on your daily life. Anyone who’s ever lived under an especially aggressive HOA, for example, can attest to what I mean. If you call one of these spots home, this is your shot to shape the decisions that touch your daily life. Think property taxes, safety, and pothole-free roads. Then you get it about the impact of elections that happen close to you: these races aren’t small potatoes.
Yet here’s the kicker: turnout for local-only elections typically limps in below 20%. So far, mail-in votes clocked in at 4% heading into today suggesting turnout might prove to be more of the same. We all gripe about taxes and roadwork, but when it’s time to vote, most folks sit it out. Don’t be that person. These ballots decide who’s steering your community—so step up, cast your vote, and make your voice count, even if your neighbors snooze through it.
Takeaway #2: Trust the Process (But Brace Yourself)
Watching the stock market lately feels like staring into a blender—fascinating, but a little terrifying. Last week was a bloodbath, the worst since September, with the Nasdaq officially in correction territory (down 10%+). Monday? The worst day for stocks in two to three years. Titans like Nvidia are scraping six-month lows, Tesla’s tanked over 40% since Inauguration Day, and a staggering 70% of S&P 500 companies are in correction mode. So, what’s the play? Trust President Trump’s process—or at least that’s the pitch.
In a Sunday sit-down with Maria Bartiromo, Trump shrugged off tariff jitters: “There’s a period of transition… We’re bringing wealth back to America. It takes a little time, but I think it should be great for us.” On recession fears? “I hate to predict things like that… We’re going to have disruption, but we’re OK with that. I have to build a strong country.” Bold words, but the market’s not buying it yet. Here’s the twist: this correction might’ve been inevitable. Stocks have been priced to the moon—more expensive on a P/E (price-to-earnings) basis than almost any cycle in 50 years, save for the dotcom boom, the Great Recession, and the COVID bubble. The AI hype was starting to echo 1999’s tech frenzy, and bubbles don’t pop pretty. A reset now—painful as it is—could let earnings catch up to valuations. If Trump’s tariffs are the spark, well…
Takeaway #3: Short-Term Pain, Long-Term Gain?
Here’s the rub: a recession during this “transition” would be a gut punch, and Trump didn’t exactly rule it out. Economists are sounding alarms—91% in a Reuters survey upped their 2025 recession odds thanks to Trump’s trade policies. JP Morgan’s pegging it at 40%, double their pre-year estimate. The real jaw-dropper? The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model. Back in January, it forecast a robust 4% growth for Q1. Two weeks ago, it was still humming above 2%. Now? A chilling -2.4%. With the model’s average error at just 0.8% and less than three weeks left in the quarter, that’s a red flag waving hard. Negative growth in the first quarter would put us halfway towards recession territory— that would be a “disruption.”
This week’s data drops are must-watch. Wednesday’s CPI (Consumer Price Index) will reveal February’s inflation rate; Thursday’s producer prices follow. A slowing economy could tame inflation, maybe coaxing the Fed to cut rates—a lifeline for affordability and a potential economic booster. But if inflation’s climbing while growth stalls? That’s stagflation territory—ugly stuff. Fingers crossed for a slowdown that cools prices without breaking the economy’s back. Trump’s betting on long-term wins, but the short-term ride’s looking bumpy—buckle up.