What’s At Stake with Florida’s Special Elections Today
Bottom Line: As I’m inclined to say every election has consequences and it’s often those closest to you that have the biggest impact on our daily lives. That’s why it’s weird, for example, that nearly 80% of eligible voters turnout for a presidential election, however fewer than 20% commonly vote in local only elections. Special congressional elections are often different versions of a similar thing. They’re all about turnout and are often decided based upon what political party does a better job convincing their voters to turnout to vote. That’s very much the case again today with two special elections set to take place in Florida, however this time with outsized stakes.
Often special elections for House races are as much about candidates jockeying for position in future elections, as it is about the political implications of what happens with a race. Historically only 16% of special elections for House seats flip parities and control of the chamber has never changed due to special elections... No matter what happens today that will remain the case, although Democrats have been hopeful about narrowing the gap heading into today.
The current makeup of the House of Representatives is 218 Republicans to 213 Democrats heading into Florida’s two special elections. The five-vote lead for Republicans is the result of Floridians Matt Gaetz and Mike Waltz resigning from Congress, but also due to two deaths of Democrats that have happened within the past month. The sudden death of two members of congress serves as a reminder of how quickly things can change in unexpected ways.
In Florida’s 1st District, Florida’s Republican CFO Jimmy Patronis faces Democrat challenger Gay Valimont in a seat that Matt Gaetz won by 32% over Gay last November.
Florida’s 6th District race is the one that’s attracted the most attention and the most money. Democrat Joshua Weil is battling former Florida State Senator Randy Fine in a race won by Waltz by an even larger 33% just last fall.
You wouldn’t expect two seats won by Republicans last November by over 30-points each would be particularly competitive, let alone at risk, but Democrats have thrown money into the state attempting to make it that way. Democrats have outspent Republicans in these two districts by a margin of 5 to 1 ($15 million to $3 million). Why? There will be special elections scheduled for the seats held by the two Democrats who passed away in March. If Democrats managed a minor miracle and flipped these seats today and they were to win the future special elections to fill their two previously held seats – they would only be one vote away from a majority. Meaning that a potential tragedy within the GOP, like what we’ve recently seen on the Democrat’s side of things could flip control of the House. It’s unlikely, but then again two-House Democrats dying within eight days of each other recently was too. That’s what’s at stake with Florida’s special elections today.