Liberation Day, Florida’s Special Congressional Races & Presidential Referendums – Top 3 Takeaways – April 2nd, 2025
Takeaway #1: Liberation Day
Do you feel liberated today? For that matter when you think of liberation what comes to mind (for me it’s something between Mel Gibson on a horse with face paint & Krammer going commando)? Regardless of what your bag happens to be – it's likely that you don’t equate liberation to tariff policies. For that reason, what’s happening today probably could use some ‘splaining... So, about that. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt announced that President Trump will be doing a lot of that today in a Rose Garden Ceremony before his cabinet and the country. Preceding that event all there is, is a lot of guessing. But this much we know – extensive tariffs are set to take place. Leading up to today, here’s what we know. President Trump has been meeting with his top economic advisors for weeks about what direction he should go in balancing his mission of ushering in a renewed era of American manufacturing, while also seeking trade equity with partners around the world. As I shared recently in a Q&A... Prior to President Trump’s second term how many countries/territories imposed tariffs against US goods? The survey says...196. Yes, 196 countries/territories including every European country, Canada, Mexico – Zimbabwe – you name it. In fact, literally if you name a country – you'll be right. How come. Here’s the next trivia question for you... How many countries are there in the world? The answer: 195. Yes, effectively every country in the world plus additional territories impose tariffs against US goods. That is except for Israel – which just yesterday in advance of today’s Liberation Day announced that they were dropping all tariffs on U.S. goods. Perhaps a sign of what’s to come? Whether you agree or disagree with Trump’s tariff policies, it’s a fact that international trade has been anything but fair for the United States. The most commonly floated idea that seemed to gain some traction yesterday was that President Trump would settle on a 20% tariff on all imported goods. Will that be Trump’s actual policy? We’ll have to wait and see. But in theory it should be liberating. What would be somewhat liberating is if the US did become self-sufficient once again, relying on trade with the rest of the world for “wants” instead of “needs”. It would also be liberating if in response to Trump’s tariffs countries around the world dropped their tariffs to offer U.S. companies' truly fair trade as Israel just did...which would be the ideal outcome here.
Takeaway #2: Special Election Day
While we wait, watch and see what will be with today’s “Liberation Day”, the results of Tuesday’s elections were predictably easy. Despite being outspent 5-1 in Florida’s special congressional elections, Republicans Jimmy Patronis and Randy Fine easily held the line in winning Florida’s 1st and 6th congressional districts. This shows two things. 1) Money can help win elections but that 2) It’s still not possible to “buy” elections if voters are still minding the store. And while the margins for Patronis and Fine weren’t close to the 30+ point victories achieved by Gaetz and Waltz last November, the votes cast Congress by Patronis and Fine will count all the same. Republicans in Florida and across the country can breathe easier knowing that two candidates backed by Bernie Sanders won’t be representing two of Florida’s reddest districts. What’s more is that the timing is especially important for President Trump’s agenda because the extremely tight Republican House majority is about to get the most breathing room that it’ll likely have for the duration of the current congress. In March, two House Democrats died and special elections have yet to be scheduled to replace them. With the two GOP wins, Republicans will soon have a 7-seat majority. That will mean that if both parties have all members in House for floor votes that Republicans could lose three votes and still pass legislation on a party-line vote. Recently the margin has only been one and commonly it’s been that close with Thomas Massie going against the rest of his GOP constituency. President Trump’s legislative agenda (whether it’s one “big, beautiful bill” or perhaps two with some warts), is currently being crafted and congress and will come up for votes over the next month and a half. Trying to get all members onboard will be a chore. Republicans having the breathing room of a 7-member majority increases the likelihood that Trump will score what he wants in the end.
Takeaway #3: A Referendum? Please
The only thing politically dumber than suggesting that special elections for congress are referendums on a current administration, is suggesting that a non-partisan Supreme Court race in a single state is. To illustrate the point, during the previous congress Democrats outperformed Republicans in special elections by an average of 11-points! This convinced many on the Left to believe that Donald Trump was sinking the GOP... That was until he won the largest victory by a Republican president in 36-years. So yeah – calling special elections presidential referendums is an especially dumb thing to do. That’s why Wisconsin’s non-partisan Supreme Court race, that went the way the Left wanted it to go with their preferred candidate Susan Crawford carrying the day, is anything but a presidential referendum. For starters – Crawford is replacing another liberal in the state – meaning the net effect even for Wisconsin is no change. Had the Republican-backed candidate won the race it would have been an ideological shift for the court. Would the Left have called it a referendum on Trump then?