Trump’s Tariff Changes Pave the Way & Illegal Immigrants Have Numbered Days – Top 3 Takeaways – April 14th, 2025 - Driven By Braman Motorcars
Takeaway #1: The more things change the more they stay the same
You know the saying. You’re familiar with its work. You’ve probably said it yourself somewhere along the way. Well, it most certainly applies to what’s been happening of late. Before diving into the reasons behind that being my top takeaway today...it’s trivia time! You get all of the points from an entire tariff-free BBC original version of Who’s Line is it Anyway if you can answer this question. Who coined the phrase “the more things change the more they stay the same?”. Here’s a hint... plus ça change, plus c’est la même chose. That’s how it was first presented by French writer Jean-Baptiste Alphonse Karr in 1849. Yes, even that saying is a European import. It felt appropriate for this tariff inspired takeaway today. So, about that... My theme for you to start the week last week was this... Right now is a time to be opportunistic even if you’re not especially optimistic. As much as some of my biggest calls and biggest decisions have happened through the application of the 180-degree theory at various flashpoints in modern American history, the decision to do so is remarkably easy. Are you a believer in this country? Do you believe that this country will be better off by the time President Trump’s done with his presidency than it is today? If the answer to those two questions is yes – the rest is particularly easy to digest. Here’s a fact. Every major stock market selloff in American history has proven to be a historically good time to invest in American companies. Fear and human nature always have people thinking that maybe “this time” will turn out differently. At a certain level that’s an absolute possibility. Every world superpower has eventually fallen. But unless you believe that this is that time, that truly the American dream is dead and that our country’s best days have come and gone – there's no doubt that what’s happening in the financial markets is presenting excellent opportunities. Again, American history is 100% on this. Look, it’s too early to declare that entering this week the worst of the volatility or even that the bottom of the market in this cycle is definitively in.
Takeaway #2 But it is possible (that the bottom is in)
Due to something else I said to begin last week: Nothing about the current economic landscape suggests that this is or would be a typical recession. The situation we’re currently in is most similar to what we briefly went through at the onset of the pandemic. People who panicked sold stocks at lows and passed up opportunities in real estate as well. This time is different because what we’re experiencing isn’t due to macro-economic factors or bad decisions being made due to a virus. It's due to a rapid shift in executive policy that could change at any time. And boy with the announcement of tariff pauses and product exemptions – including on virtually all consumer electronics most recently – my guidance has proved entirely true. If you were buying into the teeth of the bear market selling to begin last week – you're likely up double-digit percentages on that investment heading into this week. As I’m inclined to say – I've not made a career out of being wrong and if you’ve listened for long, you’re aware that I take these types of decisions and statements extremely seriously. I’d never suggest that you do something I wouldn’t do – or in the case of buying the bear – was doing. It’s worth continuing to look for opportunities going forward. But as for where stocks are to start the week. They’re where they were last August or in other words the market has only effectively given back what it gained from the Trump election rally. Not bad for President Trump’s Great Reset of global trade policy. Word from the White House entering this week is that the administration is close on signing renegotiated trade deals with 15 countries. This process may play out quicker than most may think.
Takeaway #3: Self deportations are working
Over the weekend, the Department of Homeland Security put out this notice and revised guidance for those who remain in our country illegally: Foreign nationals present in the U.S. longer than 30 days must register with the federal government. Failure to comply is a crime punishable by fines and imprisonment. President Trump and Homeland Security Secretary Noem have a clear message to Illegal aliens: LEAVE NOW and self-deport. The stated consequences of remaining in the country are these: Immediate deportation when detected with jail time preceding. A fine of $998 per day for all illegal immigrants who’ve been court ordered to be removed, but have stayed. A fine of up to $5,000 for stating that you’ll self-deport but don’t. Permanent prohibition from legally entering the United States. Using the same app that the Biden administration used to fly illegal immigrants into this country – the Trump administration has opened up for those seeking self-deportations. Thus far just over 5,000 illegal immigrants are on the record as having self-deported trough the CBP One app. The pressure to self-deport is starting to work and the increased penalties and scrutiny should prove helpful as the administration looks to take next steps after a series of recent legal victories (for the most part), pertaining to the deportation of illegal detainees. The best form of deportation for all involved is self-deportation. The marketing campaign you’ve seen and heard has netted thousands of results thus far. Hopefully phase 2 proves to be even more effective.