Q&A – Are Plane Crashes Happening More Frequently or Are We More Aware? - Driven By Braman Motorcars
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Today’s Entry: Hi Brian, I have a question that came up that I’d like to propose for your Q&A. Following the crash Friday in Boca and New York I got into a conversation about plane crashes seemingly happening more frequently. I don’t know if they are but then again, we also had the commercial crash in D.C. earlier this year as well. Are crashes happening more frequently and if they are what’s the determining factor? Human error or mechanical failure?
Bottom Line: It’s a question that’s been raised by some who’ve wondered if aviation has changed in any way of late – and perhaps with the change of administrations and transportation secretaries as well. Fridays tragic crash of a Cessna with three members of the Stark family onboard certainly hit home locally for many, but to the point of your note – that's not even the most recent deadly plane crash to occur. On Saturday, in upstate New York, a Mitsubishi twin engine plane also crashed killing six prominent members of their community as well. Last week also included the high profile and somewhat shocking helicopter crash in New York City.
It’s understandable that the volume of news about aircraft crashes of late is leading to some wondering if something’s up in aviation that’s leading to so many of these aircraft crashing down. So, let’s dive in.
As of yesterday, the National Transportation Safety Board has reported 155 aviation accidents in the United States year-to-date, with 25 that are fatal, resulting in at least 120 deaths. These figures include both commercial and general aviation incidents. However, as the NTSB notes, numbers may vary as investigations are ongoing, and data is preliminary. That's also going to factor into answering the second part of your question as well. But first let’s address this.
- The total number of recorded aviation accidents year-to-date works out to average about 1.5 per day with
- An average of a fatal aviation accident happening an average of every 4.2 days
So how does that compare to a typical year?
In the United States, the average number of plane crashes per year, including both commercial and general aviation, is approximately 1,350 based NTSB records with an average of 250 proving to be fatal. Last year for example there were 1,417 crashes of which 258 were fatal.
That means that during the typical year...
- The total number of recorded aviation accidents averages about 3.7 per day with
- An average of a fatal aviation accident happening an of every 1.5 days
So, in reality, what we’ve seen to start the year not only isn’t extraordinary, but it’s also far less than usual. Due to most aviation accidents involving private aircraft, they tend to only make the news locally unless there’s a sensational aspect to the crash.
Over the past week we’ve had a combination of proximity (the Boca crash), prominence (the upstate New York crash) and sensationalism (the NYC helicopter crash). That’s led to more news of aviation crashes taking place than is usual, even though the total volume of crashes has been well below usual so far this year. As for the considerations for human vs. mechanical failure...
Just as most automotive accidents are human error (94% according to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration), most aviation accidents are as well.
- Approximately 75% of aviation crashes are determined to be human error (with a quarter coming down to mechanical failure)
The most common forms of human error in order are: pilot error, maintenance failures, air traffic control issues. It’s too early to compare what’s happened this year, in terms of the cause of crashes, to what’s happened in past years as many are still under investigation, however it’s unlikely that anything we’ve seen this year will prove to have been different.
And as for those wondering... It’s long been known that flying in a commercial aircraft is the safest way to travel. However, it’s also still far safer to fly in a small, private aircraft than to drive. Per mile traveled, you’re 80% less likely to be killed in a small aircraft crash than in an automotive crash. As always there are two sides to stories and one side to facts. Those are the facts.