Q&A – Did President Trump Cave on Tariffs? - Driven By Braman Motorcars
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Today’s Entry: @brianmuddradio @benshapiro Said Trump caved on China tariffs – that it wasn’t “4-D chess”. Do you agree?
Bottom Line: When the topic of tariff punditry comes up two thoughts come to mind. The first is an old and somewhat crud saying about opinions. The other is my saying about there being two sides to stories and one side to facts. It’s frustrating to me when anyone of influence isn’t operating with opinions based on facts. In general, I like and respect Ben Shapiro. In general, I also agree with him about tariffs. As I’ve long said, I’m not a fan of tariffs either. With that said, President Trump’s use of tariffs in his first term – proved so effective that President Biden left them in place while he was president – earned him additional consideration this time around.
Shapiro was a critic of tariffs in Trump’s first term – and he was an especially loud critic of his “Liberation Day” tariffs this time around. Specifically, Shapiro said: I think that the way that the tariff plan was rolled out is about as bad a rollout as you could do. That unquantified opinion hasn’t aged well in the early going as stocks and cryptos have more than fully recovered pre-Liberation Day losses and the inflation rate has continued to fall through April (though in fairness the impact of the Liberation Day tariffs wasn’t felt in April). The inflation rate was 3% the day that Donald Trump became president, it’s 2.3% today. Shapiro’s comment, cited in today’s note, came last week when President Trump announced a 90-day trade deal with China that reduced tariff rates by 115% when Shapiro said it wasn’t “4-D chess” but rather it was just people getting yippy and bond markets getting queasy (playing a clip of Trump saying that when he quickly relaxed the across the board tariffs for most country's to 10%). But here’s the thing and it’s a considerable thing. Trump hasn’t caved on anything. He hasn’t “reversed” himself on anything.
Here’s the average tariff rate charged by the United States on imports by date:
- January 20th (Inauguration Day): 2.5%
- April 2nd (Liberation Day): 27%
- May 12th (China trade deal): 17.8%
Maybe you think President Trump’s tariff policy is a good idea, maybe you don’t. What’s not open to interpretation however is this... 1) President Trump most certainly hasn’t reversed his tariff policy. The average tariff rate charged for imports most recently is over 15% higher than it was when he became president. It’s a false narrative that’s advanced by some who said his plan was a poor one and would fail in the first place.
Most people only hear that tariffs have gone up or come down, not the terms or the rates and while that might make it seem like President Trump has caved or reversed his policy position that isn’t the case. That’s especially true regarding China.
Chinese tariff rate by date:
- January 2018 (when Trump first imposed tariffs on China): 8.3%
- January 2025 (reflecting Trump’s 1st term-imposed tariffs): 20.8%
- May 20th, 2025: 31.8%
As of today, the tariff rate imposed on Chinese goods is 23.5% higher than it was prior to his first term and 11% higher than where it was when he started this term. Also, the imposed tariff rate on China remains 21.8% higher than the rate being imposed on the rest of the world. Additionally, when President announced the UK trade deal, he mentioned that the 10% tariff rate would remain in effect and would be the floor going forward – meaning that at a minimum tariff rates even after all trade deals take place will remain a minimum of 7.5% than what they were prior to his administration.
It remains to be seen what the long-term effects of the president’s tariff and trade policies will be, but what isn’t open to interpretation is that he continues to handle tariffs and trade differently. There are two sides to stories and one side to facts. Those are the facts.