Q&A – Is NOAA The Most Accurate Hurricane Season Forecaster? - Driven By Braman Motorcars
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Today’s Entry: Brian, many of us have our preferred weather forecasters and favorite meteorologists, however that doesn’t seem to be the case with hurricane season forecasting (I’m speaking for myself but also conversationally when I brought this up with friends, no one had any forecasting that stood out to them). My question is this. Of the hurricane season forecasters, is NOAA’s outlook typically the most accurate? If not, do you have a favorite?
Bottom Line: As always there are two sides to stories and one side to facts, so for me my preference in hurricane forecasting comes down to two things: 1) Accuracy 2) The way forecasting is communicated. Accuracy speaks for itself but as for the way forecasting is communicated – I have very little tolerance for what I consider to be “weather hype” or people/agencies who will play with people’s emotions.
One of the most egregious examples of this I can recall, in my 27 years covering hurricanes, happened last year when AccuWeather's preseason forecast characterized the upcoming season as “explosive”. That kind of characterization is completely uncalled for and only serves to prey on the nerves of people, which isn’t constructive in any way. What’s more is that AccuWeather’s “explosive” hurricane season forecast was a massive bust. Total activity came in well below the lowest end of their projected activity range. So that takes us to the overall question of accuracy.
Since the onset of hurricane season forecasting, which began in 1998 with NOAA, NOAA’s accuracy rate (meaning that overall activity landed somewhere within the provided range in each category) has been 53%. That’s statistically better than a coin flip, but essentially it has been a coin flip. They’ve historically been right only slightly more than wrong. However, that has been improving, as their technology has improved over time.
Of the annual providers of preseason hurricane season forecasting: AccuWeather, CSU NOAA, The Weather Channel... No single forecast is definitively “the most accurate” every year, however, there have been themes. Here’s a breakout of the most recent five-year performance of each:
- AccuWeather: 2 overestimated; 3 underestimated – no accurate years
- CSU: 2 overestimated; 3 underestimated – no accurate years
- NOAA: 2 accurate; 3 underestimated
- Weather Channel: 2 overestimated; 3 underestimated – no accurate years
Through this exercise we see that NOAA isn’t only the most accurate of the hurricane forecasters – but is actually the only forecasting service to have an accurate forecast within the past five years – with not just one but two accurate years. The other three services have provided forecasts that largely track with one another with only slight variations (though if we’re playing horseshoes or hand grenades the Weather Channel’s forecast has been the least off on average of the other three).
Clearly NOAA’s forecasting has been the best in recent years, and actually, last year’s forecast was the best they’ve ever put out with all aspects of activity lining up within the mid-point of their range. This washes with technological improvements resulting in better forecasting. For 2025, NOAA predicts 13–19 named storms, 6–10 hurricanes, and 3–5 major hurricanes, with 70% confidence, reflecting cautious optimism based on current data.