You Were Better Off in May & You’ll Be Better Off in June - Top 3 Takeaways – May 30th, 2025 - Driven By Braman Motorcars
Takeaway #1: You Were Way Better off in May
As we’re closing out the month of May, there are several exciting economic themes. The stock market recovered from April’s bear market in record time with the S&P 500 now higher once again on the year. Thursday’s 1st quarter GDP revision showed the economy didn’t slow as much as the initial reporting said and that if not for companies importing record amounts of things to build inventories in advance of Liberation Day tariffs – we would have seen growth of around 3% - which is outstanding (and is also a strong indication of what we’re probably currently pacing heading into the home stretch of the second quarter). In other words, a month ago many were talking about the potential for a recession. Today, there’s absolutely no chance of a near term recession taking place. Happy day. A month ago, many were saying that Liberation Day tariffs were going to start hitting your wallet any day. In reality, you still haven’t seen the impact of those tariffs in any way. On that note, the inflation rate fell to 2.3% most recently – the lowest it’s been since Trump was one month removed from having been president previously. Better still...the odds are that you’ve been making more money. The average person has earned 3.8% more than a year ago most recently – meaning that the average person is finally starting to get ahead once again. When was the last May that the average family's income grew by 1.5% or more than the inflation rate? The last time Trump was president of the United States. Every major economic measure that really matters when it comes to your family’s financial situation improved significantly in the month of May with plenty of room for improvement that’s likely on its way with President Trump’s agenda working its way through congress in what will hopefully be a somewhat aesthetically pleasing bill.
Takeaway #2: You've noticed it too
President Trump’s average approval rating coming into May was 45% and on the direction of the country question that stood at just 40%. As we’re set to wrap up May, El Presidente’s approval rating is back up to 48% with 44% approving of the direction of the country. Consider this... Biden’s approval rating when he left office was only 39% with only 26% of Americans approving of the direction of the country. President Trump’s approval rating is wrapping up the month 9-points higher than President Biden and his autopen, with the improvement in the direction of the country doubling that gain at 18%! In fact, how many May’s a go do you have to go to find the last time that at least 44% of Americans said the country was heading in the right direction? The answer is 16. The last time was May of 2009 when President Obama was still new on the job and talk of hope and change was still a thing. President Trump’s current approval rating is also 8-points higher than it was on this date in his first administration. So, the point is this. We’re doing better than we’ve done since Trump was last president and as a result Trump’s doing better leading our country in a more positive direction, in our view, than any president has done since Obama was a new president.
Takeaway #3: So now about June...
Expect more good news. The Cleveland Federal Reserve updated its inflation exceptions yesterday, and they’re estimating that the rate of inflation has been flat in May and will fall to under 2% during Q2. A number that not only would be great news for you, and that would start to force the hand of the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, which would reduce borrowing costs too. We should see increased optimism about overall economic growth as well. A month ago, the Atlanta Fed’s GDP estimate was for growth of only about 1% for the second quarter, as of today, they’ve more than doubled that estimated growth rate and it appears that there’s room for even more – with a 3%+ growth economy increasingly likely. I touched on the One, Big, (potentially) Beautiful Bill, making its way in congress, it’s very likely that the final incarnation of that bill codifies President Trump’s agenda is passed through to Trump by the end of the month in time for him to sign it on Independence Day which is his goal. The debt concerns with the bill are real, but so are the pro-growth policies within it as well. Tens of millions of Americans would begin to see an even bigger benefit than the initial Trump tax policy that would serve to put more money in the pockets of families and further stimulate the economy among other things like providing the Trump administration with the resources they need to carry out his immigration agenda. And it’s important to remember that deportations mean less inflation. Oh, and we’re about to enter hurricane season without any named storms and nothing on the horizon in the Atlantic. You were better off in May, and there’s reason to believe you’ll continue to see and feel more good news in June. Happy Friday!