How Low Can Stocks & Crypto Go? June 2nd, 2025 - Driven By Braman Motorcars
The Markets Are Testing Your Nerves—Here’s What You Need to Know
Bottom Line: My first rule of money... Never let your money and emotions cross paths. This isn’t a doomscroll though after the past week you might feel that you’re living through one. This story is a weekly wake-up call to show you the near-worst-case scenario for stocks and crypto. Why? So, you can plan your financial future with a cool head, not a racing pulse. The odds of a near-worst case outcome almost certainly won’t happen, however if your plan accounts for it – it can help you manage through even the most trying markets like what we’re experiencing right now.
The US stock market is history’s ultimate wealth-building beast. Crypto? It’s minted millionaires from early believers. Fact: Over 90% of the time, investors who try to “time” the market end up poorer than if they just stuck to their original investments. This is about dodging that trap.
Here’s how the big three indexes are faring in 2025 so far:
- DOW: flat (+2% last week)
- S&P 500: +1% (+2% last week)
- Nasdaq: -1% (+2% week)
The market ended last week’s shortened trading week higher by about 2% across the board, leaving the S&P 500 higher for the year as we enter the traditionally slower summer trading months. May was an incredible bounce back month for the market with gains ranging from 4% (DOW) to 10% (Nasdaq) as April’s losses on tariff fears were wiped away.
As June trading kicks off today trade and tariff concerns are once again in focus as heated rhetoric picked up late last with both China and Russia – as President Trump has expressed frustration with the lack of progress with a cease fire with Ukraine and on cementing a new permanent Chinese trade deal. Also, of note – the president said he’ll increase the tariffs on steel to 50% which prompted a response from the EU – as they suggested they’d take counter measures should that take place. That’s amid the already challenging trade negotiations with the EU.
So yeah – there's a lot of trade and tariff stuff that will still be in focus, including the legality of the president’s approach. On that note the next legal hurdle for the Trump administration on tariffs will come this week as well after an appeals court allowed his Liberation Day tariff policy to remain in place pending a hearing. The market is likely to be headline driven again this week.
As for cryptos...
Bitcoin backed away from what was close to an all-time high recently, near $110,000, and it was a mixed bag for digital tokens generally. Here’s a look at where they stand.
- Bitcoin: -5% last week +10% YTD
- Ether: +6% last week -26% YTD
- BitwiseETF (Top 10 cryptos): -4%, last week -5% YTD
I can’t value cryptos because they have no inherent value. Stocks, though? They’ve got bones. Let’s break down the S&P 500:
- Current P/E: 28.15
- Historic Avg. P/E: 16.14
Translation: On earnings alone, the maximum downside risk is 43% drop from here—1% more than last week as stock prices rose faster than fundamentals. The market is still slightly historically expensive; however, we have seen a 5% improvement in the fundamental value of the market during this market cycle.
So, What’s Your Move?
If a 43% dip wouldn’t derail your life, you’re probably golden. If it would? Time to call a pro and build a plan that doesn’t leave you sweating bullets—or making mistakes.