Q&A – Is Florida the Most Conservatively Trending State? - Driven By Braman Motorcars
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Today’s Entry: Hi Brian, I love your data driven research and that’s why I’m reaching out to you today. We know Florida continues to trend towards the right and is no longer a swing state. My question is whether some of the existing swing states may begin to track in Florida’s direction? My thoughts are these.... Florida had been a leading indicator of the overall directional trend in the country. Is that still the case even though we’re not a swing state, or has it become a situation where Florida is purely an outlier now because it’s the epicenter of the GOP? Thank you for what you do.
Bottom Line: In a wonky way this is a fun question because it challenges me to present research in a way, I’d not previously in addition to learning along the way myself so let’s get to it.
There are a number of ways to attempt to measure the political dynamics between states over time. One of the most straight forward can be voter registration trends...however the challenge in the context of today’s question is two-fold with that one. First, not every registered partisan voter necessarily votes for candidates in their party (although 90% of the time they do). Second, only 30 states have partisan voter registration information which leaves out 40% of the country – so it’s not going to be the best way to determine political changes over time. Although – it's worth noting this change...
For states with partisan voter registration the most recent breakout looks like this:
- 37% Democrat
- 31% Republican
In 2022 that stood at:
- 39% Democrat
- 29% Republican
Over the past three years for most of the country that does have partisan registration we’ve seen Republicans gain on Democrats by 4-points. The better way to track total voting trends across states is to compare the 2020, 2022, and 2024 elections.
Over the past five years and three cycles there are 18 states that have tracked 1% or more towards the right and they are in this order:
- West Virginia, Wyoming, Oklahoma, North Dakota, Florida, Texas, Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Tennessee, Idaho, Utah, Montana, South Carolina, and Ohio.
And now for the states where Democrats have made gains of at least 1% or more over the previous five years and three election cycles:
That’s not a mistake. There’s not a single state that’s trended at least 1% more in the Democrat’s direction over the past five years. So that’s a major takeaway that clearly answers the question. And as for Florida being an outlier on the trendline – there’s no evidence of that being the case as there were four other states with larger trends over the comparable period to Florida. As for the bigger picture question about whether current swing states could eventually follow Florida?
Notably Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin – all of the current swing states – have trended above the national average for Republicans over the past five years. Of course, just as is the case with financial products – past performance is not a predictor of future results, however yes – the trendline with elections and most recently with voter ID across the country is extremely favorable for Republicans.