Q&A – Are Hurricane Seasons Less Active Without Preseason Activity? - Driven By Braman Motorcars
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Today’s Entry: @brianmuddradio Are hurricane seasons less active when there aren’t preseason storms?
Bottom Line: It seems logical, right? If we don’t have preseason hurricane tropical activity, there’s bound to be fewer overall storms, would you think? Well, sometimes perception and reality aren’t on the same page. In this case, they are aligned. As I mentioned in my annual June Hurricane history story, historically, about 3% of the storms that form, occur prior to hurricane season. That necessarily means on balance there’s less activity that happens during the average hurricane season when there isn’t preseason activity. But the overall historical trend is much more significant than 3%.
Seasons with preseason named storms are usually the result of especially favorable conditions for development, such as warmer sea surface temperatures or reduced wind shear. Almost always that’s translated into above-average activity throughout the season. So, about that...
- The historical average 1966 (satellite age) to 2024 for total named storms when there’s at least one preseason storm: 15
- The historical average for total named storms when there’s not a preseason storm: 12
So yeah – the implications have been significant with three fewer named storms and 20%+ less activity on average. But of course, averages and reality aren’t always aligned. On that note, despite not having any preseason tropical activity last year during the two most recent years without preseason tropical formation, we’ve had average to above average seasons with 18 named storms in 2024, 14 in 2022. Speaking of outliers, the second most active season in recorded history, 2005, was a year where the first named storm didn't develop until June 8th. That year also holds the record for the highest number of hurricanes – 15 and is tied for the highest number of majors – 7. So, the takeaways based on data are these:
- There are no hard and fast rules but...
- Not having a preseason named storm has produced an average of 3 fewer named storms and has most commonly led to average to below average activity
Since 1966 there have been 19 seasons without a named storm by June 4th. The average number of named storms in those seasons is 9. Only four have produced above average activity overall: 1971, 2013, 2022, 2024. That’s a pretty good track record (although there is a more recent potential trend emerging that makes it less likely we’ll get low activity).
There is one date that stands out historically when we’re looking light activity... June 22nd. We’ve not had an above average hurricane season when we’ve not had a named storm prior to June 22nd. That’s not to say it can’t happen, however you’ve got to like those odds if you can that far into the season with a storm.
Now, there are always lots of people who’re quick to remind you that it only takes one. And that’s, of course, true. It’s also true that if there are fewer storms that form period the odds of you or anyone else having to deal with the ‘one’ are lower. Let’s hope this season surprises on the downside. We’re off to an encouraging start.