Q&A – What Are the Odds of Nuclear War? – Driven By Braman Motorcars
Each day I feature a listener question sent by one of these methods.
Email: brianmudd@iheartmedia.com
Social: @brianmuddradio
iHeartRadio: Use the Talkback feature – the microphone button on our station page in the iHeart app.
Today’s Entry: Today’s entry was submitted via talkback asking about the risk of nuclear war following Ukraine’s successful attack of grounded Russian bombers.
Bottom Line: As a child of the 80’s I remember participating in the Cold War era “nuclear drills” in school. In my case we hid under our desks (because ya know, if a nuclear bomb were to strike near our school getting under our desks would be the lifesaving move...). Anyway, from those alive during World War II to those who grew up prior to the 1990’s, one thing we all had one thing in common was an awareness of the threat of nuclear war with the Soviet Union.
The Malta summit in December of 1989 ushered in a new decade of relative peace and stability in the 90’s and with it younger generations who haven’t really lived under a perceived high-level threat of nuclear catastrophe. However, are we potentially entering a new era where that dynamic is set to change? Could Ukraine’s highly successful drone attack into the Russian interior – destroying approximately a third of the Russian bomber fleet elevate the risk of a nuclear response by Russia?
It’s a good question that I obviously can’t empirically answer. With that said, there are analyst observations I can share with you in addition to Russia’s currently stated posture. You might recall that it was just last November where Russia revised its nuclear doctrine following President Biden’s decision to allow Ukrainian strikes into the Russian interior with American weapons lowering the threshold for their possible use. As is stated by Russia they may decide to use nukes:
- If reliable information is received about the launch of ballistic missiles targeting the territory of Russia or its allies.
- If nuclear weapons or other weapons of mass destruction strike the territory of Russia or its allies or are used to hit Russian military units or facilities abroad.
- If an enemy’s impact on critically important Russian government or military facilities could undermine retaliatory nuclear-strike capability.
- If aggression against Russia or Belarus involving conventional weapons raises a critical threat to their sovereignty and territorial integrity.
- If reliable information is received about the takeoff or launch of strategic and tactical aircraft, cruise missiles, drones, hypersonic or other flying vehicles and their crossing the Russian border.
And of course, it’s worth mentioning that this is Russia. There’s no reason to necessarily think they’re going to be transparent or honest about the use of nukes. So did Ukraine’s successful strike against Russia’s bombers put all of us at greater nuclear risk? The answer is probably not meaningfully.
Specific to Russia’s stated doctrine the strike didn’t impair Russia’s nuclear capabilities – that's key in this conversation. So is this...China.
China’s not exactly our friend. As I’ve said for years China is Russia, is Iran, is North Korea with Little Rocket Man, is Cuba, Is Venezuela, is Nicaragua...these are in many ways the new axis powers. But the most important player within that axis is China. And here’s what China has had to say to Russia in an official statement about the use of nuclear force: A nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought.
Now again, that’s China and all of the similar can we really trust them to mean what they say and say what they mean things apply. But there’s reason to believe they mean it. If we’re going to have a nuclear World War III, you’ve got to imagine China would set to fight that war on their terms as opposed to being dragged into the potential apocalypse by Russia.
Additionally, and importantly, China needs Russian resources and Russia needs China’s money.
The reason trade sanctions didn’t work against Russia for the Ukrainian invasion is due to the unprecedented trade deal the Russians struck with the Chinese. Russia doesn’t need to export its energy or it’s grain around the world – China’s been more than happy to buy all they have and more. But China’s trade deal with Russia only works if Russia still has energy and grain to sell. Even somewhat isolated nuclear outcomes aren’t exactly likely to continue to produce that reality.
There’s always a risk in trusting the world’s worst actors to do the right thing – however even out of self-interest the risk of nuclear war likely isn’t higher than it was before (whatever that happened to be – which expects/analysts often peg at 1% to 2% per years).
Finally, there was this Truth posted by President Trump yesterday: I just finished speaking, by telephone, with President Vladimir Putin, of Russia. The call lasted approximately one hour and 15 minutes. We discussed the attack on Russia’s docked airplanes, by Ukraine, and also various other attacks that have been taking place by both sides. It was a good conversation, but not a conversation that will lead to immediate Peace. President Putin did say, and very strongly, that he will have to respond to the recent attack on the airfields. We also discussed Iran, and the fact that time is running out on Iran’s decision pertaining to nuclear weapons, which must be made quickly! I stated to President Putin that Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon and, on this, I believe that we were in agreement. President Putin suggested that he will participate in the discussions with Iran and that he could, perhaps, be helpful in getting this brought to a rapid conclusion. It’s clear Ukraine is going to be hit hard somehow, but it doesn’t sound like we’re talking nukes, and if Putin is talking about be helpful in keeping nukes away from Iran – that's particularly encouraging news.