How Low Can Stocks & Crypto Go? June 9th, 2025 - Driven By Braman Motorcars
Record highs are in sight—Here’s What You Need to Know
Bottom Line: My first rule of money... Never let your money and emotions cross paths. This isn’t a doomscroll though after the past week you might feel that you’re living through one. This story is a weekly wake-up call to show you the near-worst-case scenario for stocks and crypto. Why? So, you can plan your financial future with a cool head, not a racing pulse. The odds of a near-worst case outcome almost certainly won’t happen, however if your plan accounts for it – it can help you manage through even the most trying markets like what we’re experiencing right now.
The US stock market is history’s ultimate wealth-building beast. Crypto? It’s minted millionaires from early believers. Fact: Over 90% of the time, investors who try to “time” the market end up poorer than if they just stuck to their original investments. This is about dodging that trap.
Here’s how the big three indexes are faring in 2025 so far:
- DOW: +1% (+1% last week)
- S&P 500: +2% (+2% last week)
- Nasdaq: +1% (+2% last week)
Optimism reigned supreme last week as economic data was solid – highlighted by the better-than expected jobs report which led to a massive rally to leave all of the major indexes higher on the year once again as we enter trading this week. A few key points, data continue to show a strong and steady economy with flat to declining inflation – despite inflation fears and resilient consumers. That’s a recipe that’s put the potential for record highs back on the table – with the S&P 500 only a little over 2% away from new highs. Not many would have thought it possible two months ago during the peak of the post-” Liberation Day” tariffs.
This week will feature hugely important inflation data in the form of the Consumer and Producer Price Index reports which will provide an updated inflation rate and that figures to weigh heavily into the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy decision next week. Stand by for news...
As for cryptos...
Bitcoin backed away from what was close to an all-time high recently, near $110,000, and it was a mixed bag for digital tokens generally. Here’s a look at where they stand.
- Bitcoin: flat last week +12% YTD
- Ether: -3% last week -25% YTD
- BitwiseETF (Top 10 cryptos): +1%, last week -4% YTD
I can’t value cryptos because they have no inherent value. Stocks, though? They’ve got bones. Let’s break down the S&P 500:
- Current P/E: 28.63
- Historic Avg. P/E: 16.14
Translation: On earnings alone, the maximum downside risk is 44% drop from here—1% more than last week as stock prices rose faster than fundamentals. The market is still slightly historically expensive; however, we have seen a 4% improvement in the fundamental value of the market during this market cycle.
So, What’s Your Move?
If a 44% dip wouldn’t derail your life, you’re probably golden. If it would? Time to call a pro and build a plan that doesn’t leave you sweating bullets—or making mistakes.