Q&A – The Relationship Between Saharan Dust & Hurricane Season – Driven By Braman Motorcars
Each day I feature a listener question sent by one of these methods.
Email: brianmudd@iheartmedia.com
Social: @brianmuddradio
iHeartRadio: Use the Talkback feature – the microphone button on our station page in the iHeart app.
Today’s Entry: @brianmuddradio Is the reason hurricane season is off to a slow start the Saharan dust? You were on it last year.
Bottom Line: As Saharan dust makes its way once again across our state, it dried the weather out and brought the sun with a side of particulate matter throughout. Saharan dust is the ultimate hurricane replant. Yes, the two are connected. There have been a few times over the past year I’ve discussed the topic of the importance of Saharan dust influencing the Atlantic hurricane season.
It was three years ago when I began extensively covering the topic. Rather than reinventing the wheel, he’s the crux of that story... “Climate Change & A Quiet Atlantic Hurricane Season“ I pointed out this: At the forefront of active hurricane predictions has been the topic of climate change. And specifically warmer temperatures, and especially warmer oceans, resulting in increasingly active hurricane seasons. This is logical. It’s a fact that warmer waters are more conducive for tropical development – hence why hurricane season occurs when it does. But there’s a big ‘ole fly in the climate change = ever more hurricanes argument. It’s not analytical. And it’s been on my radar for over two years.
You might have noticed we seemingly have had more Saharan Dust clouds flying over South Florida. It’s not your imagination, we have. I had been researching this because my wife Ashley has asthma and the increasing Saharan Dust activity has meant she’s had to change inhalers, use them more often, and frequently pops Zyrtec. As part of my research into the Saharan Dust I came across a Harvard study in 2020 entitled Climate change affects Saharan dust storms. The lead line says it all: A new groundbreaking study shows that the warming planet will make dust storms more intense in the Mediterranean and the Atlantic. Now, without diving into all the specs of the study, the bottom line is this. The past couple of years we have seen a marked increase in Saharan Dust clouds and Harvard’s researchers offer extensive evidence that rising temperatures/climate change is behind it. Few things act as a greater hurricane repellant than massive dust clouds across the entire Atlantic (crossing over into the Gulf).
Two years ago, when we swung into the El Nino weather pattern during hurricane season, Saharan dust wasn’t as prominent of a factor as the dust wasn’t often making its way here. But last year, as we shifted back to a La Nina weather pattern, the dust steadily flowed from coast to coast (Africa to the Americas) almost as though it was on a conveyer belt. The dust was historically high in June, and as a result there were only three named storms through the first two months of hurricane season in what had been predicted by many to be a historically busy (and perhaps record setting) season. In the end the season concluded with ‘only’ above average activity.
The Saharan Air Layer, which generally moves between 5,000 and 15,000 feet above sea level, contains an average of 50% less moisture. 50% less moisture doesn’t necessarily line up with 50% less tropical development, it can be more complicated that (like for example all of the rain we had early in the week as the dust was making its way into the state), but it certainly reduces whatever else would be when present. The other potential benefit of the dust is the ability to ever-so-slightly impact ocean temperatures. The dust reflects some sunlight and reflects small amounts of solar radiation which can lead to slightly cooler ocean temperatures (than otherwise would be) when the dust is present. Last year, there was another meaningful development on this topic.
A new study entitled: Leading role of Saharan dust on tropical cyclone rain-fall in the Atlantic Basin was published in Science Advances and highlighted by Stanford University. Among the studied conclusions was this: Surprisingly, the leading factor controlling hurricane precipitation is not, as traditionally thought, sea surface temperature or humidity in the atmosphere. Instead, it's Sahara dust. Without getting in the weeds of the research, the main takeaways were these. Saharan dust has become the single biggest factor in whether tropical formation takes place and how much rain is concentrated in storms that do form.
So, on that note, Saharan dust is a pest for people with respiratory conditions like my wife Ashley, but it’s our best friend when we’re in hurricane season. And Ashley has said she’ll gladly trade a little extra use of her inhaler for the absence of hurricanes. Most probably would too. Most of last week’s dust plume has run its course, though there’s another slightly less dense round in route in the eastern Atlantic right now.