On the Brink of Unprecedented Peace w/Unprecedented Success to Follow – Top 3 Takeaways – June 24th, 2025 - Driven By Braman Motorcars
Takeaway #1: Unprecedented Peace – Part 2
Yesterday my top takeaway for you was unprecedented peace. Specifically, I said... For decades, U.S. Presidents and leaders from around the world have said “Iran can never have a nuclear weapon”. But all along Iran played games to continue to try to develop nuclear weapons. In a matter of minutes, with the deployment of MOP bombs, that all ended. There is no doubt that the world is a safer place today because Iran’s nuclear program is done and because...there’s no escalation in conflict coming from the U.S.’s two biggest adversaries who are also Iran’s two biggest allies and that tells you all you need to know. Ding dong, Iran’s nuclear program appears dead. The world’s leading sponsor of terror is on the brink, China and Russia are calling for peace (which btw, so is the United States as Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said on Sunday: “The US doesn't seek war”). Additionally, you might recall that President Trump was treated like he was an Arabian king on his recent visit to the middle east. None of this points to military escalation and the potential for World War III. All of it points towards the potential for unprecedented peace. Well, if yesterday you thought I was crazy suggesting that we were on the brink of unprecedented peace – you probably don’t feel the same way today given the ceasefire that’s now in effect between Israel and Iran with an apparent end to the Trump-branded 12 Day War.
Takeaway #2: Watch the price of oil
If you want to know how things are going in Iran, you don’t need to watch the news, listen to pundits or theoretical experts...all you need to do is watch the price of oil. Plus, if you do, you’re bound to find all kinds of fake news and highly uniformed views. Take this Forbes headline yesterday: Oil Price To $150? As is warned of in their story: Iran has ordered the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. This action threatens to block roughly 20% of the world’s oil supply, valued at approximately $1 billion per day, and is poised to drive oil prices higher. Or the Economic Times with their headline... Can crude oil prices really double? That reads like this: As the Middle East slides into its most dangerous flashpoint in years, doomsayers warn that Brent prices could surge past $150 per barrel in a worst-case scenario, a geopolitical shock big enough to sever key oil routes and ignite panic across global markets. Well, kudos for trying if hyperbole is your thing. As always there are two sides to stories and one side to facts. The fact of the matter is that the price of oil is truth. 21% of the world’s oil supply runs through the Straight of Hormuz bordering Iran. On Sunday, the Iranian parliament voted to block the flow of oil through the Straight of Hormuz. But that never came to fruition, and btw, even without the ceasefire it still wouldn’t have. There are multiple reasons for this, but none bigger than what I’ve been highlighting for years. Repeat after me. Iran isn’t just Iran, it’s China, it’s Russia, it’s North Korea (with Little Rocket Man), it’s Cuba, it’s Venezuela and Nicaragua. That’s why my focus hasn’t been on Iran but rather China and Russia – the two players who really pull the strings in this modern axis incarnation of things. And on that note, when it comes to oil who’s Iran’s biggest customer? China. So, if Iran tried to shut down the Straight of Hurmuz who would be hurt the most? How likely is it that China would support such a thing? Anyway, ceasefire or no ceasefire, and end to the war or no end, it’s for this reason that oil is still being shipped around the Straight of Hormuz and for that matter why the price of oil even preceding the ceasefire announcement didn’t spike to $150 per barrel, or $100 per barrel – or even $75 per barrel which is what the price closed at on Friday before Saturday night’s strikes. No, the price is down to $66 today, or 12% lower since the U.S.’s military intervention into Iran. The price of oil is also 18% lower than a year ago. That tells you all you need to know about how this is going. Something else that figures into this too... Record domestic energy production. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration the U.S. energy industry had already been taking advantage of the regulations President Trump eased upon becoming president. A record 13.49 million barrels of oil per day have been produced within the United States most recently. U.S. producers are pumping in record numbers which not only helps supplies but also to stabilize volatility when it comes to geopolitical events. It’s one of many reasons why the fear mongers were wrong about the implications of the U.S. strikes in Iran, and why, as I said yesterday, we currently are on the brink of unprecedented peace. That’s why the price of oil is actually lower today than before the U.S. dropped the MOPs on Iran.
Takeaway #3: Ignore the polls for a week
Last Wednesday in my takeaways I said this: A YouGov poll released yesterday shows that only 16% of Americans support direct U.S. military intervention in the war between Israel and Iran. It’s clear that Americans, regardless of where there they fall on the ideological scale overwhelmingly want Trump to do the easiest thing to do. Although it can also be said that most Americans associate military intervention with the endless, and at times seemingly pointless wars, we’ve fought with boots on the ground for generations – really since WWII. Would Americans feel differently if it were truly a matter of dropping nine bombs, flying away and being done with it? Well, it wasn’t nine MOPs but rather 14 that were dropped as part of Midnight Hammer. Otherwise, my then-hypothetical question posed, because I believed it was likely to happen, applies. I believed that the American perception of war colored by visions of boots on the ground and lives lost in Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan clouded the situation. That’s not what this was, that’s not what this is. There were no American boots on the ground in Iran and even preceding the news of peace in the middle-east we’d seen a significant shift in public opinion. In the same YouGov poll as the once I referenced last week showing only 16% support for US intervention in Iran, found that by Monday 35% approved compared to 46% who disapproved. That’s greater than double the level of support from the hypothetical situation of a week ago. But give it another week before you pay attention to what people really think. That’s because 56% of Americans responding to that poll thought that Saturday’s bombing was just the start of our involvement in yet another war. Now that people realize that this isn’t Vietnam, Iraq or Afghanistan – there will likely be majority support President Trump’s decision to drop the MOPs. In fact, we may already be starting to see that reality set in. In a poll conducted yesterday by Sinclair Media posed this way: Do you support the U.S. airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities? 64% said yes. Yesterday my message was that we were on the precipice of unprecedented peace. Today my message is that we’re on the precipice of unprecedented success.