How Low Can Stocks & Crypto Go? June 30th, 2025 - Driven By Braman Motorcars
Record highs for the S&P 500 to close out the first half of the year
Bottom Line: My first rule of money... Never let your money and emotions cross paths. This isn’t a doomscroll though after the past week you might feel that you’re living through one. This story is a weekly wake-up call to show you the near-worst-case scenario for stocks and crypto. Why? So, you can plan your financial future with a cool head, not a racing pulse. The odds of a near-worst case outcome almost certainly won’t happen, however if your plan accounts for it – it can help you manage through even the most trying markets like what we’re experiencing right now.
The US stock market is history’s ultimate wealth-building beast. Crypto? It’s minted millionaires from early believers. Fact: Over 90% of the time, investors who try to “time” the market end up poorer than if they just stuck to their original investments. This is about dodging that trap.
Here’s how the big three indexes are faring in 2025 so far:
- DOW: +3% (+4% last week)
- S&P 500: +5% (+4% last week)
- Nasdaq: +5% (+4% last week)
It was an incredible week for the financial markets last week culminating with the S&P 500 closing out the week at all-time highs as the historically successful strikes on Iran, crippling its nuclear program setting the stage for the end to the Israel-Iranian war kicked off the week, followed by President Trump’s success in getting all NATO countries, except for Spain, to pledge to spend 5% of their GDP on defense spending – lowering the burden on the United States going forward.
Optimism also reigned regarding the growing likelihood that President Trump’s agenda, contained within the One Big, Beautiful Bill Act, would pass congress which is in focus today and will remain so during this week as President Trump’s goal is to sign the Act into law on Independence Day on Friday. Trade also remains in focus as progress continued toward a sweeping Chinese trade deal remains on track, while there’s been a significant setback with the Canadian trade deal over tariffs imposed by Canada largely impact U.S. tech companies.
As for cryptos...
Bitcoin backed away from what was close to an all-time high recently, near $110,000, and it was a mixed bag for digital tokens generally. Here’s a look at where they stand.
- Bitcoin: +8% last week +15% YTD
- Ether: +7% last week -27% YTD
- BitwiseETF (Top 10 cryptos): +5%, last week +3% YTD
I can’t value cryptos because they have no inherent value. Stocks, though? They’ve got bones. Let’s break down the S&P 500:
- Current P/E: 29.41
- Historic Avg. P/E: 16.15
Translation: On earnings alone, the maximum downside risk is a 45% drop from here—2% higher than last week as stock prices rose while fundamentals were mostly unchanged. The market is still somewhat historically expensive; we have seen a 3% improvement in the fundamental value of the market during this market cycle.
So, What’s Your Move?
If a 45% dip wouldn’t derail your life, you’re probably golden. If it would? Time to call a pro and build a plan that doesn’t leave you sweating bullets—or making mistakes.