Q&A – Are Jewish Voters Fleeing Democrats for the GOP? – Driven By Braman Motorcars
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Today’s Entry: Brian, With the Democratic Party turn to pro-Gaza, pro- Hamas, anti-Semitic, and anti-Israel, are Jewish people leaving the Democratic Party?
Always listening…keep up the great work!
Bottom Line: Your question comes at a great time as we’ve not only recently seen President Trump deliver the most important victory to Israel and the region, that could possibly be delivered to the Jewish state with the dropping of 14 MOPs, effectively ending Iran’s nuclear program as it had been; but also as the most comprehensive study of voter patterns conducted every four years just came in.
Every four years, following a presidential election cycle, the Pew Research study conducts the most extensive research on voter patterns and trends that come in. As Pew explains it: This Pew Research Center analysis examines voter turnout and voting preferences in the 2024 presidential election through the lens of validated voters. Validated voters are adult citizens who told us that they voted in a postelection survey and have a record showing they voted in their state’s official voter turnout records.
So, this study is effectively the “trust but verify” research study of changing voter trends and the only one of its kind at a national scale. And the headline to Pew’s study didn’t say it all, but it said a lot: Behind Trump’s 2024 Victory: A More Racially and Ethnically Diverse Voter Coalition. It was already evident that President Trump had the biggest coalition of voters, effectively the most diverse base of support, that any president has had many years and potentially decades. I've taken the findings from Pew and also added historical context for when a Republican presidential candidate performed as well with each demographic as Trump did last year.
- Asian Voters: Trump improved his share of Asian voters to 35% in 2024, up from 27% in 2020, with stronger support among Asian men and non-college-educated voters. This was the highest share of the Asian vote for a Republican presidential candidate since George W. Bush in 2000.
- Black Voters: Trump’s support among Black voters rose to 15% in 2024, up from 12% in 2020. Gains were most pronounced among Black men (20% supported Trump) and younger Black voters. That was the highest share of the Black vote won by a Republican presidential candidate since Richard Nixon in 1960.
- Hispanic Voters: Trump significantly increased his support among Hispanic voters, particularly younger men. About 45% of Hispanic voters backed Trump in 2024, compared to 38% in 2020. It was also the highest share of the Hispanic vote achieved by a Republican presidential candidate since Richard Nixon in 1972
- White Voters: In 2024, 78% of Trump’s voters were White, down from 88% in 2016, reflecting a broader ethnic and racial coalition.
- Men: Trump won 55% of men, up 5-points from 2020. This was the highest percentage of men won by a Republican presidential candidate since George W. Bush in 2004
- Women: Trump won 46% of women – a 2-point improvement from 2020. This was the highest percentage won by a Republican presidential candidate since George W. Bush in 2004.
This type of info is particularly important because the surveyed divide in polling between “Adults”, or the widest sample that captures non-voters, and likely voter surveys has never been wider. For example, President Trump’s current average approval rating in “adult” sampled surveys is only 41%. However, Trump’s average approval rating in “likely voter” surveys is currently 53% - the highest approval rating Trump has had to date. Now with all of this said... You may have noticed that I still haven’t answered the question about what’s happening with Jews. That’s because Pew didn’t do extensive religious breakouts in the study. So, about that...
The most comprehensive analysis of Jewish voting trends that we’ve had in recent history was a nationwide study of Jewish voters conducted by the American Jewish Committee last year prior to the Presidential election. In the survey 31% of Jewish voters identified as Republicans. That is the highest percentage on record and close to double the 16% historic average. It’s also notable that this data is a year old now. While it’s unclear what’s changed over the past year – given world events – one would think the trend towards the right by Jews would have continued.
Notably, locally, President Trump won Boca Raton by 208 votes in 2016. He carried Boca by 6,758 voters last year. That monumental shift in the largest Jewish community in South Florida’s highest per capita Jewish community, likely speaks to larger trends across the country.