American Made Jobs for Americans & Tariff Time 2.0 – July 8th, 2025
Takeaway #1: Made in America
This just in... Jobs created in the United States of America are actually going to Americans...(again)! Here’s a crazy stat for you. What percentage of jobs added in this county during the Biden administration went natural born citizens? 59%. That’s it! 41% of the jobs added in the country during the four years of the Biden administration went to foreign-born persons. Now some of those jobs went to legal immigrants, those on work visas, etc... but an awful lot of those jobs went to people who didn’t legally enter this country, or should I say those who gamed the asylum and TPS system under a complicit administration. To put hard numbers on it. Based on government data, of 13.4 million jobs added under the Biden administration, 7.9 million went to native American workers while 5.5 million went to foreign-born workers (of both the legal and illegal variety). This was even more devastating than it sounds because most of the jobs were those recovered from pandemic era-lockdowns. So, in other words, Americans were knocked out of the workforce during COVID only to be replaced by illegal immigrants in many instances coming out of it. So, what’s happened through the first 5+ months of the Trump administration? 985,000 jobs added with a net decline of 735,000 foreign born workers.
Takeaway #2: That’s a net change of over 1.7 million Americans working already this year!
That’s an incredible turnaround and that’s a remarkable immediate takeaway. In other words, in the real economy, for the average American, the job market opportunities have been rapidly improving. The old excuse is that illegal immigrants do the jobs Americans won’t do. What this data shows is that illegal immigrants were taking the jobs that Americans needed (along with affordable housing and other government assistance programs too). What’s more is that the decline of 735,000 foreign-born workers is running well ahead of detention and deportation numbers from the interior so far this year. What this also suggests is that it’s likely self-deportation numbers could be huge. When it comes to deportations, we don’t know what we don’t know, which means that the only self-deportations we’re aware of are those that’ve taken place using the CBP One Home App – of which only several thousand have been reported thus far. While digging deeply into the jobs data, there was far more than meets the eye. Going forward you can expect to see labor force participation rates rise once again as Americans who’d been knocked out of the workforce, by those here illegally, see the opportunity to work once again. What this also is likely to mean is faster and higher wage increases as well. There’s a lot here. A LOT...stand by for news in future months. I’ll be watching this going forward.
Takeaway #3: Tariffs 2.0
On Monday, selling ensued on Wall Street after closing out last week at record highs. Some of the selling might have happened with a bit of profit taking after the record setting rally from April’s lows anyway. Some of it definitely was due to what drove the post-Liberation Day selloff in the first place...tariffs. It’s worth noting that to date only three trade deals have effectively been completed: China, the UK and Vietnam. Those three countries equal only 18.6% of total U.S. trade combined. Or in other words, we have over 80% worth of trade deals to go. What that also means is that tariffs could escalate once again. President Trump has expressed frustration recently with the speed (or lack thereof) of remaining trade deals coming together. For that reason, he announced that in a couple of weeks tariff levels could revert back to Liberation Day levels for countries without new trade agreements in place. In the meantime, on Monday, two new tariffs were announced for two of the U.S.’s top Asian trading partners – Japan and South Korea, at 25%, that are set to kick in August 1st. That’s no small thing. That’s independent of an additional 10% tariff on any countries that go along with the agenda of the BRICS counties as outlined currently in Rio de Janeiro. Also, word from the Trump administration was that up to 15 total countries could receive similar announcements from President Trump by the end of the day Wednesday. And here’s the thing that’s worth noting. Perhaps some countries haven’t taken the Trump tariff threats as seriously as he had intended – at least for the purpose of exacting the terms of new trade deals he seeks to achieve. That would seemingly make it less likely that Trump might back down or offer a reprieve from elevated tariffs a second time...at that point without trade deals in hand, he could lose credibility and the upper hand. With his BBB already signed and effectively his second term agenda accomplished legislatively, it also frees him a bit politically to pursue exactly what it is that he wants to do with trade without worrying about the political implications with fickle congressmen day to day. In other words, based on what happened yesterday, and what we’re now conditioned for, August 1st could be an especially important deadline on tariffs and trade. Hopefully the trade deals are worked out by then, but if not, get ready for Tariff talk 2.0 with the potential for increased volatility in the financial markets once again.