Econ, Maxwell’s House & Team Autopen – Top 3 Takeaways July 15th, 2025
Takeaway #1: A lot on the line today
Today is the start of the second quarter earnings season for corporate America and with stock prices essentially sitting at record highs with uncertainty about tariffs, deficits and inflation – there's a lot on the line with the reports that will begin to roll in – first from the big banks. If earnings deliver with solid guidance, the recent rally can be justified. If earnings falter with weak or no guidance, we could quickly see the market reach correction territory. But speaking of markets and inflation, today’s inflation report for June, the Consumer Price Index Report, is probably going to be the most significant of the Trump presidency. The rate of inflation has fallen from 3% when Trump became president to 2.4% most recently. The Fed and most economists have been wrong about the effect of Trump’s tariff policy, and the impact on the U.S. economy. The question is whether they’ll continue to be. Wall Street expectations call for inflation to have risen to 2.7% in June – as the full effect of Trump’s Liberation Day tariffs kicked in. If that holds true Jerome Powell, aka Too Late, and the Fed will continue to sit on interest rates leaving them unchanged – feeling justified in their stance. If inflation is flat or manages to do the unexpected and track lower, Trump would have all the ammunition he would need to demand rates be lowered immediately, or at least in the next fed meeting in two weeks. Also, most on Wall Street at that point would agree. Stand by for news...
Takeaway #2: Enter Ghislaine into the conversation?
While often forgotten conversationally when discussing all things Epstein related – there’s still one person, with the living, who knows exactly what happened and with whom. And she happens to be in Florida right now. It’s safe to say that without the stunning and disgusting recruitment and grooming program put in place for the better part of a couple decades by Ghislaine Maxwell, the use and abuse of Epstein’s victims never would have reached the prolific levels that it did...and thus likely wouldn’t have included the seemingly extensive clientele that participated in it. That’s what landed Maxwell a 20-year sentence in a Federal penitentiary in Tallahassee which is where she resides today and is currently scheduled to spend every day until 2042 (although she could be eligible for early release as soon as July 17th, 2037). But as the Daily Mail first reported on Monday, according to an alleged source anyway: No-one from the government has ever asked her to share what she knows. She remains the only person to be jailed in connection to Epstein and she would welcome the chance to tell the American public the truth. Now, two things about this. First, and somewhat ironically, given the backlash there’s been over the past week since the DOJ’s memo leak to Axios – stating that there is no Epstein list after all and that its case closed as far as the DOJ goes...the Maxwell factor looms large here. The best evidence there’s ever been that Jeffrey Epstein potentially wasn’t murdered as part of a criminal coverup conspiracy, is that his literal partner in crime Ghislaine Maxwell is still with the living. In fact, there’s no doubt that she knew more about the victims than Jeffrey did day-to-day. That's worth considering if you’re on the conspiracy track but hadn’t considered that. But here’s the next point as far as the potential for Maxwell testimony goes. Would it even matter? As in, would either side (those who believe the DOJ, and those who think it’s a conspiracy) trust what Maxwell would have to say? After all she has proven to be as devious and deceptive as a person could potentially be. However, there’s little doubt that public interest in this case would lead to the desire to hear what Maxwell has to say. News of Maxwell’s alleged willingness to spill the beans on the alleged black book, has all of the makings – and it was also seemingly timed for maximum effect, as Maxwell has been appealing her 2022 conviction in the Epstein case, it just so happens that yesterday, was the date that AG Pam Bondi’s DOJ had to issue a response related to the appeal in that case. Maxwell appears to be seeking to exploit Bondi’s public vulnerability on this issue to use the court of public opinion to perhaps get another day in court. So, the question is do you want to hear from Ghislaine, but also without knowing what it is that she would say, would you trust what she has to say?
Takeaway #3: Team autopen
I have a correction to make. In my Top 3 Takeaways from January 21st, the day after Inauguration Day, I included this: While President Biden spent his final hours in office Monday morning signing preemptive pardons for his family members, the Fauch, Mark Miley and the entire sham January 6th committee (literally his last pardons were for his family members at 11:38 – 22 minutes before officially exiting office)... Donald Trump was squarely focused on ushering in a new era of national success. The correction I have to make is that as we’ve come to learn, President Biden not only didn’t sign those pardons himself, but there’s also an open question regarding how much he ever signed himself. Team Autopen was in, instead. On Monday the drip, drip, drip, of how Dementia Joe’s administration would really go about its business, the New York Times has now reported that it wasn’t Joe who issued those final pardons, it was his chief of staff Jeff Zients, who did the autopen through an email. Somewhat remarkably according to the New York Times, the email from Biden’s chief of staff said this: I approve the use of the autopen for the execution of all of the following pardons. Seriously? That’s how Team Autopen worked? A chief of staff would send emails? This very well could be an issue that if pressed ends up in front of the courts. What happened here does have to potential for a constitutional crisis if true. While the Constitution doesn’t address matters that arrive at the level of an autopen – what is clear is that the president’s signature must be applied to any legal documents. While autopens have been known to have been in use since the Eisenhower administration in the 1950’s, a 2005 legal opinion determined that autopen signatures were legal for the president under Article 1, Section 7 provided that: the president authorizes its use and intends for it to have legal effect. But if the Times is accurate in their reporting, where is it that the president explicitly authorized it’s use for those pardons. We only have the authorization from the chief of staff, and he didn’t even say that President Biden approved the use of the autopen but rather “I” approve the use of the autopen. This speaks not only to the constitutional questions around those pardons but also likely provides additional insight into how Team Autopen worked. It clearly was a practice that had become standard operating procedure. How much of what was “signed” during the Biden administration may have happened by Team Autopen without the president’s expressed consent? If Bondi’s DOJ is competent, they’ll get to the bottom of this.