Q&A – How President Trump Should Address Immigration Policy
Each day I feature a listener question sent by one of these methods.
Email: brianmudd@iheartmedia.com
Social: @brianmuddradio
iHeartRadio: Use the Talkback feature – the microphone button on our station page in the iHeart app.
Today’s Entry: Submitted via talkback. Hey Brian, this is Mike from Stuart. I have a question for you. Do you think it would be a good idea if the president would start to focus on some legal immigration? To counteract all the illegal immigrants that we're deporting and demonstrate that legal immigration works. It might be a good good sound bite and upset the lips. Love your show, man. Thank you.
Bottom Line: Hi Mike, and thanks for the support, it’s appreciated. In answer to your question, I don’t think a focus by President Trump on legal immigration would be the best strategic decision at this point – politically or pragmatically. I’ll explain starting with the pragmatic aspect of the president’s immigration policy. It’s rare for a data wonk like me to come across something that’s truly eye-opening but that’s what happened recently when breaking down the monthly jobs report. After analyzing the data, I found the most eye-opening immigration related takeaway I’d ever found within the BLS's monthly jobs report.
As I said in my Top 3 Takeways from July 8th: Based on government data, of 13.4 million jobs added under the Biden administration, 7.9 million went to native American workers while 5.5 million went to foreign-born workers (of both the legal and illegal variety). So, what’s happened through the first 5+ months of the Trump administration? 985,000 jobs added with a net decline of 735,000 foreign born workers. In other words, in the real economy, for the average American, the job market opportunities have been rapidly improving. The old excuse is that illegal immigrants do the jobs Americans won’t do. What this data shows is that illegal immigrants were taking the jobs that Americans needed. What’s more is that the decline of 735,000 foreign-born workers is running well ahead of detention and deportation numbers from the interior so far this year. What this also suggests is that it’s likely self-deportation numbers could be huge.
And that’s the key here. Why, when 41% of all jobs added during the Biden administration were going to immigrants, would we suddenly see a decline of nearly 150k – immigrant workers per month during the Trump administration thus far, while the overall economy has still added nearly a million new jobs overall? It would almost certainly seem to reflect a massive shift towards self-deportation. That serves two major functions.
First, the cost for the Trump administration to arrest, detain and to deport an illegal immigrant has averaged over $17,100 most recently. It obviously doesn’t cost us anything when they leave of their own accord without even making use of the CBP One Home app (which comes with a $1,000 bonus for self-deporting). This is by far the most efficient way for the Trump administration to carry out mass deportations. What’s more, is that the deportations don’t get hung up in courts. Starting with February, the first full month of the second Trump administration, an average of only 14,700 deportations per month have taken place. This means that during the same five months where it’s likely 735,000 (or more) illegal immigrants self-deported, Homeland Security was only able to deport 73,500 – or literally only one-tenth of the number. What’s more is that there’s likely to be many more who chose to self-deport going forward.
While on the one hand it can be frustrating to see and hear jaded, one-sided and outright false reporting pertaining to the conditions and the detainees at Alligator Alcatraz, it serves a purpose. The media is actually playing into Trump’s hand. We tend to view these situations from our perspective on the outside. However, the worse the media makes the ICE detention situations sound, the less likely illegal immigrants are to wait around to see if they’ll be detained next. The Pew Research Center has been studying this since March. Among a category they call “immigrants” 43% now “worry a lot or some that they, a family member or a close friend could be deported”. That’s a record high sample that’s up from 33% in March. That type of sentiment should help direct self-deportation decisions into the future.
And then last but not least, there’s the politics of this to consider. If your concern is about how this will play politically. It’s also backfiring on Democrats and the media. When they carry on and lie and play the woe is the illegal immigrant card the average American hears...” great, Trump is doing what I voted for him to do”.
Immigration remains President Trump’s top performing issue with an average of 2% more Americans approving of his handling of immigration in the RealClear Politics average of polls, compared to his overall approval rating.
That’s something that’s likely only to continue to rise as more job opportunities and higher wages are available with fewer illegal immigrants occupying them. That’s in addition to lower housing costs and more affordable housing options becoming available and less crime, which I’ve also covered too.
While it is true that legal immigration plays an important function in this country, with too many incredible success stories to name (but that start with the world’s richest man and one-time Trump fan), what the Trump administration is doing – led by apparent mass self-deportations is working – so strategically it would make sense to keep the focus where it is as opposed to talking up legal immigration, which many lead to some illegal immigrants to believe that Trump is softening on the issue. Many illegal immigrants have believed that the longer they remain in the country the more likely they are to be granted legal status, just as was the case during the 1980’s when amnesty was granted. Ending that narrative is key to Trump’s plan to combat illegal immigration.