Blue State Ice Raids, Recidivism Rates & The Future of the Country – Top 3 Takeaways July 22nd, 2025
Takeaway #1: Blue State Ice Raids
The definition of insanity came into play in a big way this past weekend in New York City. On Monday, Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem had this to say following the weekend attempted robbery involving a previously deported illegal immigrant who was processed and allowed back in anyway by Biden’s Border Patrol in 2023: There's absolutely zero reason that someone who is scum of the earth like this should be running loose on the streets of New York City. The referenced earth scum, who’d been deported but allowed back in by Biden had subsequently been arrested in New York City four times, however had been released back into society each time due to NYC’s failed policies. As Noem went on to say: He was arrested four different times in New York City, and because of the mayor's policies and sanctuary city policies, was released back to do harm to people and to individuals living in this city. And the failed lawlessness of both the Biden administration, and that of New York City, is why an off-duty ICE officer was shot in the arm and in the face while attempting to defend against a robbery attempt by this illegal immigrant and a second illegal immigrant he’d teamed with. This prompted Noem to also add: I'm calling on every single mayor and sanctuary city and sanctuary governor to change their policies and to change their tactics right now. Their job is to take an oath to protect the public, to protect families that are out there every single day trying to provide for each other and to try to live the American dream. And they want to do so safely in their own communities. How many more lives will it take? How many more people have to be hurt and victimized before we have public safety? It’s a good question. That takes us too...
Takeaway #2: Recidivism rates
Here’s the first thing to consider conversationally. What do you think the recidivism rate is for convicted criminals? The survey says (based on convictions) ...77%. This just in, correctional facilities aren’t generally correcting anything. And btw, the recidivism rate jumps to 84% for convicted criminals under 24. Now what do you think the recidivism rate is for an illegal immigrant under 24 who’s been deported once, arrested four times, but that has never once been held accountable for his crimes? That’s why we are where we are with situations like what just played out in New York. As an aside, while reviewing recidivism rates – out of 43 states that report this data, Florida has the third lowest recidivism rate in the country. Also, the four states with the lowest recidivism rates (Virginia, West Virginia, Florida and South Carolina), are all currently red states that have aggressively enforced the law. So maybe, just maybe, there’s something to it? No wonder sanctuary states and sanctuary cities with no cash bail policies continue to see the problems they see.
Takeaway #3: The future of the country
The latest estimates show 57% of illegal immigrants are in “blue states” despite there only being 23 “blue states” by way of state leadership. So, in other words, as it pertains to illegal immigration, 57% of the problem is present in 46% of the states. It’s a trend that also appears to have been growing since states like Florida began to get especially tough on enforcement of illegal immigration. So, in other words, not only is it clearly necessary for ICE to crackdown in mecas of illegal immigration like California, Colorado, Illinois and New York in order to address the larger problems...it’s also particularly important as it pertains to the future of congressional seats and the electoral college. For example, California’s likely illegal immigrant population now estimated at around three million, is larger than the total population of 18 states! Due to the Census counting total persons, not total citizens, the record amount of illegal immigration into this country by the Biden administration will lead to a future generation of improper congressional representation and influence in the electoral college. There are 769,221 people per congressional representative in this country. This means California’s illegal immigrant population alone, if left unchecked, would eventually lead to approximately 4 more congressional seats than California deserves and four more Electoral College vote than the state deserves. With total illegal immigration considered across the country the average blue state would have 24% more influence from the population impact of illegal immigrants than red states. Or in other words it equals four more congressional seats and four more electoral votes than should go to blue states. That would be enough to flip control of congress to Democrats from Republicans in the current congress. The electoral college votes are more than the margin to flip the results of three prior presidential elections (2000, 1876, 1824). Combating the illegal immigration crisis today is important in Florida – it's paramount in states like New York and California. The future of the country could literally be decided by people who aren’t legally in it. This is an overarching reason why President Trump’s mass deportation plans are important. This is why blue state raids will continue to be in focus. It’s where the opportunity is. It’s where the most illegal immigrants are by far.