Considering The Source & Trump Six Months In – Top 3 Takeaways July 23rd, 2025
Takeaway #1: Consider the source
The BBC, Reuters and the Associated Press. Do you know what those three entities have in common? When I asked ChatGPT for the “three most credible sources for news” those are the three it spit back out to me. The AP, Reuters and the Wall Street Journal were the three that Grok sent back to me. This illustration proves a couple of points. Not only is it important to consider the source when it comes to where you get your news, but it’s important to consider the source of your AI (and here’s a hint, much like the news organizations they highlighted – they're all significantly flawed too). So, on the topic of considering the source after six months into President Trump’s second term how do you feel about the job he’s been doing? Here’s one thing that’s universal anyway – better than Biden. Just over six months ago when Dementia Joe was told it was time to go, he departed with a RealClear Politics average 39% approval rating...which btw, seriously, who were the people on January 19th who were looking at ‘Ole Joe and not just thinking – well at least he isn’t Trump – which for someone on the left I understand, but rather – yes – now that’s a president I approve of? Yeah Joe Biden...give me more of that guy’s sweet political action... How does that happen? Let alone with 39% of people? But I digressed. Also, only 27% of Americans feeling as though the country was heading in the right direction. So where are we after six months of Trump’s presidency? In the same polling average 45% of Americans approve of his performance with 42% approving of the direction of the country. Not the greatest numbers, not Trump’s highest numbers of his second term, but Trump’s approval is six points higher than Biden’s and a solid 15% more Americans feel we’re at least heading in the right direction. But as I mentioned in my top takeaway – consider the source. As we all know and is after three presidential elections, well documented, President Trump’s actual support has always been higher than the average of the polls. When you boil it down to polling samples, there’s a very specific story that you see. For the polls that only sampled “adult” surveys – or basically the polling equivalent of “man on the street”, Trump’s rating averages only 42% currently (though still decently higher than Biden). Among samples of registered voters, or those who at least have made an effort somewhere along the way to get engaged...Trump’s rating bumps up to 46% - or a figure that’s already higher than his overall average rating. And when you take the temperature of only likely voters it turns out most, just over 50% approve of the job that Trump continues to do. This tells the much more instructive story. The fact of the matter is that most Americans who pay attention to the news, most Americans who vote, do approve of the job that Trump’s been doing. You simply have to consider the source. But even if you don’t, you’ll still not find even a single poll, a single source, that has Trump performing as poorly as his predecessor – which speaks volumes. And was for what it is that most approve of...
Takeaway #2: He’s been busier than you
Through his first 184 days, the President of the United States is responsible for 171 signed executive orders, 75 presidential proclamations, 45 presidential memoranda and 9 laws – highlighted of course by the president’s overall agenda being codified in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. What is it you’ve been doing? Don’t worry, I’m not judging, I’ve not been nearly that productive either and its mind blowing when you consider the man is 79! But anyway, as we look back at a couple of important moments of the first six months of Trump’s presidency, you have Liberation Day on April 2nd that stands out. As I mentioned at the time... It’s going to take a while for much of corporate America to sort this out. But the big picture is a much prettier picture than the sky is falling headlines you’ll continue to see and hear today. Trump has brought about a Great Reset to correct The Great Reset and we’ll be better off in the end that he did. While also adding this to the conversation at the peak of the post-Liberation Day stock market selloff... As much as some of my biggest calls and biggest decisions have happened through the application of the 180-degree theory at various flashpoints in modern American history, the decision to do so is remarkably easy. I’ll explain. Are you a believer in this country? Do you believe that this country will be better off by the time President Trump’s done with his presidency than it is today? If the answer to those two questions is yes – the rest is particularly easy to digest. Here’s a fact. Every major stock market selloff in American history has proven to be a historically good time to invest in American companies. Speaking of history that proved to be a historically great call on my part – I've had a decent six months too. But of course, the trade deals are still currently being worked out, but here’s what we’ve already seen with Trump’s reset in place. Inflation is lower today (2.7%) than it was the day he became president of the United States (3%) and the U.S., backed by record tariff revenues coming into the country has run a budget surplus two out of the past three months reducing the budget deficit by $177 billion in Q2. And...
Takeaway #3: He’s Not tired of winning
When we turned the page on Trump’s first 100 days, I said it would be the next 100 days that would actually be the most important days of Trump’s presidency. And from key Supreme Court rulings allowing his agenda to proceed, to the BBB, that’s exactly what we’ve seen. The final piece that’s yet to fall into place is trade. But with six trade deals done, including a massive deal with Japan yesterday, his trade deadline day of August 1st on the horizon, it just may be the case that he’s accomplishes all his trade policy within his first 200 days too. And at that point I wonder what he’d turn his attention to?