Q&A – Can the U.S. Conduct a Census More Frequently Than Once A Decade?
Each day I feature a listener question sent by one of these methods.
Email: brianmudd@iheartmedia.com
Social: @brianmuddradio
iHeartRadio: Use the Talkback feature – the microphone button on our station page in the iHeart app.
Today’s entry: @brianmuddradio This would be a way to solve the Texas and Florida redistricting situtions. What do you think about it?
Bottom Line: The “this” reffered to in today’s note was a post by President Trump saying this on Truth Social yesterday: I have instructed our Department of Commerce to immediately begin work on a new and highly accurate CENSUS based on modern day facts and figures and, importantly, using the results and information gained from the Presidential Election of 2024. People who are in our Country illegally WILL NOT BE COUNTED IN THE CENSUS. Thank you for your attention to this matter!
Ok, so there are a few thoughts that come to mind and none of them result in the outcome desired by President Trump through this process. My thoughts are 1) There’s never been a Census conducted more frequently than every ten years 2) The Supreme Court already ruled against the “citizenship question”, or standard, being added prior to the previous Census conducted during President Trump’s first term and 3) I don’t see how he’d get a filibuster proof majority in the Senate to go along with this.
In other words I doubt President Trump’s directive ultimately results in a new Census being conducted that would achieve what Florida and Texas would like to achieve and what the president has outlined, although in theory it’s at least plausible, and I’ve been surprised before so let’s dive in starting with taking a step back on the constiutional considerations that come into play with the Census.
The Census was created under Article 1 Section 2 Clause 3 of the US Constitution. Every ten years since 1790, the Census Bureau has been tasked with providing an updated count of “persons” in every state across the country. Census information is used to provide the populations in each state, which determines the number of Electoral College votes each state has. It’s also used to draw Congressional Districts and allocate funding to each.
Notable in this conversation is that the Constiution states “persons”, not citizens, shall be counted. That obviously leaves room for anyone currently in the country, legally or otherwise, to be counted. While it’s debateable at best, as to whether the founders sought to have those not legally within our country counted in the Census, the wording has allowed for that historically to take place. This incentivizes the sanctuary politics of states like California and New York to fill their population losses with those here illegally.
Now it’s possible that even though President Trump suffered a loss in 2019 while attempting to add a “citizenship” question to the Census, he might seek to try to force the issue again with the hope of a different result. The 2019 ruling was a 5-4 decision – notably at a time when liberal Justice Ginsburg was on the bench, a seat that’s now filled by Justice Barrett. In theory, if all justices broke similarly to how they did in 2019, Amy Coney Barett could be a deciding vote in allowing for the citizenship question. Whether or not an actual Census takes place here – if the Supreme Court overturned that decision, it could open up the opportunity for the question to be added by the next adminisration when the 2030 Census will be conducted. As for whether the Census can happen, the answer is yes, although it would require an act of Congress.
The constiutional language reads like this: The actual Enumeration shall be made within three Years after the first Meeting of the Congress of the United States, and within every subsequent Term of ten Years, in such Manner as they shall by Law direct. So that clause only mandates that the Census take place within every ten years as directed under law by Congress. It doesn’t state that it can only take place every ten years. Therefore, if Congress passed a law calling for a new Census to be conducted, and funded it (which is another must as the cost of conducting the Census was over $15 billion in the 2020 cycle), it could take place constiutionally. That’s another major hill to climb. It’s unclear how much political will there is by Republicans in congress for another Census – be mindful that while states like Florida and Texas – which stand to benefit from a new Census would like to see this happen – blue state Republicans in California and New York – states that stand to lose from this process, might not. In fact, they could literally be voting to eliminate their congressional seat. Even if the narrow GOP majority held in Congress, there most certainly wouldn’t be a filibuster proof majority in the Senate to go along with it.
So that’s the lay of the land. It may be interesting to see what may become of this, especially if the attempt could result in the Supreme Court reviewing the citizenship question, however there’s most likely not going to be a new Census conducted prior to the next sceduled one in five years.