CPI Defi’s Economists, Florida’s New Lt. Gov & DOGEing PBC – Top 3 Takeaways, August 13th, 2025
Takeaway #1: CPI Defi’s Yet Again
We have had consumer inflation reports for six complete months of Trump’s current presidency. Economists have been right about the anticipated inflation rate in exactly...one of them, and it wasn’t the Consumer Price Index Report from yesterday. Yesterday’s CPI release showed that the consumer inflation rate was flat last month remaining at 2.7%, down from 3% at the start of Trump’s presidency. Economists, whose accuracy rates seemingly are in competition with blind squirrels locating nuts, managed to overestimate the anticipated consumer inflation rate yet again. And that’s been the trend. Interestingly, in each of the five reports Wall Street economists have missed in their estimates, they’ve incorrectly called for the consumer inflation rate to be higher that it’s actually been. One might think that if you’re wrong over 83% of the time that 1) You might consider a new profession 2) Be introduced to a new profession if self reflection and failure isn’t enough 3) If still employed (somewhat remarkably), I don’t know, perhaps consider calculating things a bit differently? In the ultimate indictment of economists’ estimates not only do the man age to miss their mark most of the time, they’ve managed to overestimate the inflation rate every time they’ve been wrong. Does that make sense to anyone? Why are they almost always wrong, and when they’re wrong why are they always wrong in the same direction? Quick question for you. If you’ve been wrong month after month in calculating the real inflation rate and every time you’ve overestimated the inflation rate, wouldn’t you reign in your estimates, your expectations at least a little bit? And the reason this matters is that it’s those very experts, these analysts and their expectations, that continue to be the excuse for the Federal Reserve to not cut interest rates. One month ago the market priced in a 57% likelihood of cutting interest rates. That’s up to 94% today. What changed? Not inflation. President Trump increasingly looks correct when he suggests Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and the Fed at large is “Too Late” when it comes to lower interest rates. They’ve also been dead wrong to date about the impact of the president’s tariff policy. Despite all of the tariffs Trump has put into place inflation remains lower today than when he once again became president of the United States.
Takeaway #2: Ground Chuck & The GOAT
The Way of the Dragon, The Hitman, Walker, Texas Ranger. No Chuck Norris isn’t Florida’s next Lt. Governor but the man Governor DeSantis says is “the Chuck Norris of Florida politics” is. His name is Jay Collins. He’s a retired Green Beret and a Purple Heart and Bronze Star recipient who lost a leg in action and who’d been serving as a state senator until yesterday. Upon being sworn into to replace Jeanette Nunez who’d vacated the space early this year to become the President of FIU, he had this to say: I am truly honored to be appointed by the Governor — not just any Governor, Florida’s Governor, America’s Governor, the GOAT — to help him finish the mission and keep Florida strong. Collins’ signature legislation within the state was the 2023 law banning countries of concern a la China and Russia, from owning land within 20 miles of military bases and critical infrastructure across the state. Collins was also notably involved in Florida’s evacuations of Americans trapped in Israel during the recent Israel-Iran War. Aside from his qualifications there are two interesting dynamics potentially in play with Collins joining the fray. He’s a strong proponent of Governor DeSantis’s plan to end property taxes in the state, and he’s been previously rumored as a potential gubernatorial candidate. Notably Casey DeSantis, whom many have expected to run for governor, hasn’t announced a campaign and while President Trump has backed congressman Byron Donalds – Donald's doesn’t back DeSantis’s property tax plan. Collins could simply be the choice to assist Governor DeSantis through the final year and a half of his administration or he could be positioning for bigger things...
Takeaway #3: DOGE coming to PBC
As the case happened to be it was only a day after my analysis on local county’s last week that Florida’s DOGE team contacted Palm Beach County. As said in my summation... Indian River and St. Lucie are spending less on an inflation and population adjusted basis then they were five years ago. Martin County has grown the size of its government relative to it’s population by 8% and Palm Beach County by an especially significant 15%. So, I’ll say again, especially in light of these findings. DOGE us please! And next week PBC will indeed undergo some DOGEing. The areas of specific interest to the state include the way large contracts have been procured, compensation levels for county employees – with specific additional requests for all making over $200k per year, the Department of Young Services, the Office of Resilience, the Office of Community Revitalization and the Office of Community Services. There are questions about management practices, DEI related positions and policies, “Green New Deal” adopted policies, the issuance of grants, administration of transportation and Homeless Services – specifically how much money has been spent on related services and to whom. None of this means anyone has necessarily done anything wrong. It’s also not a guarantee of outcomes with any of the specific areas of interest either. But what there is, is a demand for an accounting and accountability about how county services are operating and how effective they happen to be. Palm Beach County’s property tax burden is the third highest in the state, and adjusted for the income of it’s residents – has a total tax burden that’s higher than 95% of the country. With the net inflation-adjusted growth of the county’s government spending having increased by 15% above population growth within just the past five years – there’s a lot that worth looking into here.