The GOP Can Win the Midterm Elections Right Now – Top 3 Takeaways, August 25th, 2025
Takeaway #1: Upon further review...
As I’ve previously discussed, having a new Census conducted mid-decade, is literally possible, as the constitution allows for it to happen, but it’s never happened, and it’s not about to happen now as it’s politically implausible. The proposal would have to be ratified and funded by congress which would face an uphill battle in the House (to say the least) and would face an impossible position in the Senate as numerous Democrats would have to get on board with President Trump’s plan to make it a reality. That’s not reality. More interesting is the potential for the 2020 Census data to be uncovered and reexamined with the potential to “fix” the methodology used to determine the results, which as I also uncovered, was highly questionable at best. With Florida standing as the state that was most negatively impacted by the questionable Census calculations – leading to an estimated 3.5% undercount for our state resulting in lost congressional and electoral college representation and funding, this is the angle Governor DeSantis is now focused on pursing. As he recently said: The attorney general told me he’s going to be willing to go up to Washington and talk to people in the Commerce Department to be able to get this right. I know President Trump has spoken about the need to fix the problems with the Census. I'm not a conspiracy theorist, but every state that got shortchanged was a Republican state and every state that got more was a Democrat state. That's just the truth about how that Census was applied. As always there are two sides to stories and one side to facts. Those are the facts, the governor is right. As Florida TaxWatch recently illustrated, a corrected Census would result in the loss of representation of three blue states: Colorado, Minnesota, and Rhode Island – with those gains picked up in three red states: Florida, Tennessee and Texas. The corrected census presents a compelling opportunity for the GOP. But while we wait to see if a “corrected” census will become a possibility...
Takeaway #2: Redistricting is happening
Census correction or no Census correction both Texas and California moved ahead last week with the votes to kick off the redistricting processes in their states regardless of what does or doesn’t happen with potential census changes. An interesting analysis published by Reuters over the weekend illustrated the view of the possible if this were to become a trend. For a state to push through a redistricting plan that’s aimed at gerrymandering, or attempting to maximize the political advantage of the majority party in the state, there must be a single party majority in state government (control of both legislative chambers and the governor). Republicans have a significant advantage nationally here. There are currently 38 states, including Florida, with one-party rule. Which as an aside, as terms like blue and red states are thrown around, shows you how essentially accurate that has become with only 12 states still having a divided government. Of those 38 states 23 are led by the GOP with only fifteen governed by Democrats. What’s more is that when accounting for population, the current political makeup congressionally, and what may be able to be achieved if both parties pushed for maximum advantage in the 38 states...the GOP would win big. Republicans would have a net 11 seat gerrymandering advantage in the House. That’s a massive swing in the body the GOP only had a five-seat advantage in coming into this current congress. And what that means is that...
Takeaway #3: The GOP holds the potential to swing 14...
Seats in the U.S. House prior to next year’s midterm elections without having a new Census conducted. This surely won’t be lost on President Trump as he seeks to retain control of Congress for the duration of his second term. A president’s party hasn’t gained seats in the U.S. House during a midterm election since George W. Bush’s first term 23 years ago (in the wake of 9/11). In the five midterm elections since, a president has lost a minimum of 9 seats from their party’s ranks in the midterms (Biden) – with losses as big as 63 seats (Obama). The average change has been 31 seats. No amount of gerrymandering for the GOP would account for all of that but even the lowest loss total of 9 would be enough to shift control of the House to the Democrat Party. However, if Republicans were able to move 14 seats in their favor through redistricting and Census correcting, they would head into next year's midterm elections with a cushion of 19 seats. At that point, if Republicans performed as well as either the Democrat Party during Biden’s midterm elections in 2022 or Obama’s in 2014, Republicans would still be in the majority. With the Democrat Party currently being measured by pollsters as being in the poorest position the party has been in, in modern political history, there’s a reason to believe this type of strategy would be well positioned to work – retaining a GOP majority in the federal government through the conclusion of Trump’s presidency.