How Low Can Stocks & Crypto Go? September 15th, 2025
A future Fed rate cut is now in focus
Bottom Line: My first rule of money... Never let your money and emotions cross paths. This story is a weekly wake-up call to show you the near-worst-case scenario for stocks and crypto. Why? So, you can plan your financial future with a cool head, not a racing pulse. The odds of a near-worst case outcome almost certainly won’t happen, however if your plan accounts for it – it can help you manage through even the most trying markets like what we’ve experienced this year.
The US stock market is history’s ultimate wealth-building beast. Crypto? It’s minted millionaires from early believers. Fact: Over 90% of the time, investors who try to “time” the market end up poorer than if they just stuck to their original investments. This is about dodging that trap.
Here’s how the big three indexes are faring in 2025 so far:
- DOW: +8% (up 1% last week)
- S&P 500: +12% (+1% last week)
- Nasdaq: +15% (+1% last week)
It was another winning week for stocks with the Nasdaq once again closing at record highs to end the week. Oracle’s blockbuster earnings report, leading to its best 1-day gains in over 30 years provided an additional boost to the market as did the Producer Price Index Report, showing wholesale inflation unexpectedly declining last month. The inflation enthusiasm was mitigated somewhat by a hotter than expected Consumer Price Index Report which showed consumer inflation rising a bit more than expected. Nevertheless, expectations are for interest rates to be cut by the Federal Reserve this week.
A 100% probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates this Wednesday with the only question being by how much. 93% of traders have priced in a quarter-point cut with about 7% believing it could be a half-point cut. Additionally, an 84% chance of a subsequent rate cut in October has also been priced into the market. That’s the news to watch over the course of this week as the Fed is set to reduce borrowing costs for the first time since last year.
As for cryptos...
Here’s a look at where they stand.
- Bitcoin: +4% last week, +23% YTD
- Ether: +7% last week, +38% YTD
- BitwiseETF (Top 10 cryptos): +4%, last week +26% YTD
I can’t value cryptos because they have no inherent value. Stocks, though? They’ve got bones. Let’s break down the S&P 500:
- Current P/E: 30.55
- Historic Avg. P/E: 16.17
Translation: On earnings alone, the maximum downside risk is a 47% drop from here—slightly higher than last week as prices advanced faster than fundamentals. The market is still somewhat historically expensive; we have seen a 1% improvement in the fundamental value of the market during this market cycle.
So, What’s Your Move?
If a 47% dip wouldn’t derail your life, you’re probably golden. If it would? Time to call a pro and build a plan that doesn’t leave you sweating bullets—or making mistakes.