Comey, TikTok, Econ, Aliens & a Shutdown – Top 3 Takeaways, September 26th, 2025
*For Comey & TikTok commentary listen to the Podcast
Takeaway #1: Much stronger than expected
The U.S. economy has been much stronger than expected. The thing about economic data is that by the time we get it, it’s dated and by the time we get a truly accurate picture of what’s happened its way in the rearview mirror. Next Tuesday marks the end of the third quarter, and the federal government’s fiscal year, however it was just yesterday that we received the Bureau of Labor Statistics final revision for the second quarter’s GDP. Usually, a final revision doesn’t make much news. Yesterday’s revision was huge! The final second quarter growth rate stood at 3.8%, that’s up from the original 3% that was reported. With revisions that big it appears that it’s an especially good thing that President Trump replaced the previous BLS head that was responsible for presiding over ridiculous revisions of many important economic statistics, especially with misstated jobs created. What that means is that for the first six months of the year the economic growth rate, despite Liberation Day, tariff fears and other things was 1.6%, a far cry from recession territory...but more importantly as we’re set to wrap up the third quarter...the economy is likely coming in hot. It appears to be much stronger than expected or that has been reported. The Atlanta Federal Reserve’s GDPNOW estimate for third quarter growth is 3.3% and that was before the massive second quarter growth revision. The last time we had two consecutive quarters with economic growth above 3%, which generally indicates a strong economy, was two years ago when the inflation rate was higher than the economic growth rate. What’s different now, with inflation below 3%, is that economic growth is finally benefiting the average family and with interest rates on the decline there’s reason to believe that will continue to improve.
Takeaway #2: The 2-million-man march...
Out of this country. Throughout the course of the summer, with each of the monthly jobs reports there’s been a growing trend that pointed to something potentially massive taking place in the workspace. Far fewer illegal immigrants within it. As I noted earlier this month... The storyline I’ve been tracking for months, that showed up yet again in the most recent report is the extraordinary dichotomy in foreign born jobs lost in comparison to American jobs added. But there’s so much more to the story and the reason why we’re seeing job losses is a potentially great thing for the average American employee. What is that thing...? There are 1.1 million fewer ‘foreign born’ workers in the U.S. work force since the start of the Trump administration. I’ve used that information to infer that there had likely been well over 1 million self-deportations of illegal immigrants that had taken place (while also pointing out that the weak jobs numbers weren’t inherently a sign of a weak economy but rather the rotation of illegal immigrants exiting the workforce with more Americans that would be able to step into it). Well, now we know that has in fact been taking place. The Department of Homeland Security has confirmed a record number of deportations have been taking place. According to DHS, as of this week, over 2 million illegal aliens have deported this year. Most of them by choice. According to the fact sheet, 400,000 formal deportations have now taken place while 1.6 million self-deportations have taken place. Additionally, we’ve had four consecutive months of zero illegal immigrants gaining access to this country and a 97% reduction in attempted border crossings. To put this in another context, through the first eight months of the Trump administration's policies, nearly as many illegal immigrants have left this country as had gained access to it through Biden’s open border policies during his last year in office. The net illegal immigration under the Trump administration has equaled 8,000 fewer illegal aliens in this country per day. That’s huge in so many ways. From abuse of government programs, including affordable housing, to the job market, and the inflation rate – to much greater safety in many communities. It remains to be seen if it will be more difficult to make progress from here, for example have those who are willing to self deport already done so, however what’s clear is that historic progress has been made is continuing to be made every day.
Takeaway #3: Bring on the shutdown
Republicans have already passed a government spending plan in the House that funds the federal government when the new fiscal year begins next Wednesday, so there doesn’t have to be a partial government shutdown. However, to date Chuck Schumer and his Senate Democrats have filibustered a vote to block its passage because Republicans haven’t met their higher spending demands. But President Trump is now calling their bluff. If Democrats decide to hold the line demanding more spending, what they may be about to do is far more DOGEing than even DOGE ended up doing. President Trump has ordered all department heads to come up with reduction in force plans that would permanently shrink government agencies. Ordinarily when there are partial government shutdowns, impacted government employees have been effectively provided paid vacations, as spending plans have always brought the government employees back to work with back pay for the work that they didn’t do. This time around it appears likely that if a partial government shutdown does happen next week, there could be hundreds of thousands of permanent vacations, unpaid, that non-essential government employees would be introduced to. So, if a partial government shutdown equals smaller government permanently – bring it on.