Q&A of the Day – How Many People Are Moving Due to Politics?
Each day I feature a listener question sent by one of these methods.
Email: brianmudd@iheartmedia.com
Social: @brianmuddradio
iHeartRadio: Use the Talkback feature – the microphone button on our station page in the iHeart app.
Today’s entry: Brian, you’ve been vocal over the years about migration being key to turning Florida into a reliably red state. When you were talking about wealth migration you reminded me of a question I’d meant to ask you. Given that President Trump won all the swing states, how did migration factor into those outcomes (or did it)? Also, now that we’re well removed from the pandemic are politics still a significant factor for relocations?
Bottom Line: Well, you’re right that political migrations have been on my radar for a long time. Years ago, I used to have to beat back the fears by those on the right, that blue state relocations into Florida would turn Florida into a blue state. Following the pandemic, it became clear to everyone paying attention that blue state relocations into our state were overwhelmingly conservatives fleeing the blue state policies. Specific to the topic of politically motivated relocations, at the peak of post-pandemic relocations – as I cited in my 2022 story – Are Democrats Moving Out of Florida as Republicans Move In? An analysis of relocations showed 14% of all relocations were primarily politically motivated (with larger percentages of people who were mindful of politics). Incidentally, it was also in that analysis that I first illustrated that Florida’s rapid rightward move politically wasn’t just due to Republican voters moving into Florida in mass, but also due to Democrats leaving our state in large numbers as well.
Florida has been the tip of the spear for politically motivated relocations post pandemic, but we are far from the only state to be impacted by the phenomenon. There are a couple of related studies released this year that illustrate the impact of a state’s politics in factoring into those who’re relocating. The first is a LendingTree study which showed up to 48% of those likely to relocate weigh political considerations into their decision. Notably Democrats are currently the most likely to factor politics into a move, followed by Republicans and then Independents.
In other words, what we’re effectively seeing this year, which not-so-coincidentally is the first year of President Trump’s second term, is that Democrats are the most motivated to relocate out of red states and in some cases out of the country. The study found 2% of Democrats on the move have or will leave the country with 8% relocating to blue states.
On balance, politically motivated moves are considerably lower than they were coming out of the pandemic. Only 4% of those moving this year are, or have, primarily done so due to political considerations (71% lower than three years ago). A separate study shows where those people are going and also helps shed light on the migration impact on last year’s election cycle.
A study entitled The Politics of Moving: 2025 Edition found California, New York and Illinois have been the top destinations for Democrats seeking blue states. Notably all three states have still been losing population, with more out-bound relocations from those states than those who’re moving in. However, this makes perfect sense when you consider the political mindset of those motivated to move. It stands to reason that if Republicans are fleeing and have fled California, New York and Illinois for political considerations, that motivated Democrats would be inclined to move in. After all, just as Florida and Texas are the poster children for red state politics, those states are the poster children for blue state politics.
Specifically, as it applies to the impact in swing states, the study did account for those factors too. What the study found is that states voting for President Trump in the 2024 election saw 39% more relocations during those four years than states that voted for Kamala Harris. Notably, while adjusting for politics, three states that flipped appear to have been meaningfully impacted by political migration: Arizona, Georgia and Pennsylvania – while three additional states appear to have been marginally impacted by political migration: Nevada, Michigan and Wisconsin.
To some it may seem odd to some that politically motivated movers on the right may choose to relocate to states with Democrat governors, a la Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin – they all have one thing in common. Divided government where Republicans control at least one branch of the state legislature mitigating the leftward bend of politics in those states. So, let’s say for example that you’re fed up with New York but want to remain within the region, Pennsylvania looks downright conservative in comparison. Ditto those fleeing Illinois for Michigan and Wisconsin; and also fleeing California, Oregon and Washington for Arizona and Nevada.
So, to tie all the research together, political relocations were a significant factor for Florida and many states after the pandemic, and they remain a factor those to a much lesser degree. What the trends suggest generally is that red states are likely to get redder with blue states becoming bluer with Democrats who are currently the most motivated to relocate due to politics.