From the Shutdown to ICE to Education, to Property Insurance... It’s Working – Top 3 Takeaways, October 30th, 2025
Takeaway #1: It’s working
There’s a lot that isn’t exactly working these days – including 34% of the federal government in a partial shutdown that’s now into its 30th day with notable deadlines looming on Saturday for the SNAP program and also open enrollment for ACA, Obamacare policies looming. Although in the here and now through the first 30-days, (aside from the abomination of essential federal government workers who’ve been working right along who are now not being paid on time), I’d say that even the partial government shutdown has been working. 30 days into the partial shutdown here are just some of the things that are better off today... Your 401k – the stock market has continued to hit a series of record highs... Your wallet in many ways. The price of gas has hit multi-year lows, and that’s in part because of the value of the dollar in your wallet is also meaningfully higher than 30 days ago and now interest rates which were cut by the Federal Reserve yesterday bringing down borrowing costs. Peace, as President Trump has brokered Middle East peace in addition to peace between Thailand and Cambodia. Related in part...there’s news that the global child mortality rate has reached a new record low, dropping another 1.2%. Speaking of well-being, that’s working too. Did you know that the flu season is trending 40% lower this year compared to last year? Btw, an observation, isn’t that interesting as we’re continuing to see rapid declines in flu vaccine immunizations – with fewer than half (47%) of Americans receiving a flu vaccine most recently? So...even our immune systems seem to be working better. The point is there’s a lot of really good stuff that’s happened this month at a time when over a third of the federal government has been offline. There’s a lesson in there somewhere. But here’s...
Takeaway #2: Other stuff that’s working...
Florida’s education success in recent years is one of the greatest success stories that’s ever been seen. What was a bottom ten education system twenty years ago became the top education system for two years in a row before checking in at #2 this year. And a key to Florida’s success has been school choice. You can literally draw a straight line from Florida’s adaptation of school choice programs to the outcomes students in the state and specifically graduation rates. The adaptation of universal school choice has only accelerated that fact and created an incredible series of success stories and outcomes here at home. Recently I covered how the Broward School District, which has had the most rapid decline in traditional public-school enrollment – totaling 4.7% this year – was forced to begin to close underperforming and empty schools. After having had 34 on a watchlist for potential closure prompting the school district to do something different. So, they launched the “Redefining Our Schools” initiative which led to the closure of five underperforming schools and lit a fire under many other watchlist schools. According to a Business Insider story yesterday in talking to a Georgetown University think tank: We're almost at a reckoning point for the public education system since we're seeing so many families choose to leave. And what effect is this beginning to affect? The performance of the teachers and the schools...just as those of us who fought for universal school choice always said it would. My favorite quote that sums up the situation perfectly came from Broward Superintendent Howard Hepburn who said this: Public education is not going anywhere. I think we just need to evolve to address our current times. Just like every business has to evolve over the years, it's now time for public education to evolve to really address the demands of today's world. Well, shut the front door. When was the last time you heard a public school superintendent, especially the one over the bluest school district in this state, say that the school district needs to evolve like a business? School choice has been wildly successful for students who’ve been able to make use for years, but now we’re really seeing the second phase of the success story kick in. It’s the one where all students begin to benefit because the only public schools that will survive are the ones who evolve with the times (meaning improve performance).
Takeaway #3: One more working thing...
Property insurance improvements. Florida’s property insurance crisis is over. No, that doesn’t mean property insurance will be cheap. Our properties aren’t cheap, we live in the highest risk state, it’s always going to be more expensive to insure here than anywhere else. But what it does mean is that A) It’s worth shopping around for property insurance options because you might find many more than before with much lower rates than what you’re paying and B) Our insurance market is once again healthy. Yesterday we received the news that Citizens Property Insurance, the state’s insurer of last resort, is back to the lowest levels of polices since the onset of the property insurance crisis four years ago. Last week Citizens had nearly 769 thousand policies. Today that number is at about 569k – the lowest since February of 2021. What’s more is that at the current rate of Citizen’s depopulation schedule they’ll be down to about 430,000 polices by the end of the year – or in other words a million fewer policies than they were carrying at peak crisis. That also would be the lowest since 2018. Florida’s property insurance market is finally stable and healthy. With a hurricane free year looking likelier by the day – there's reason to be optimistic that the reforms put in place by the legislature have worked.