How Low Can Stocks & Crypto Go? November 10th, 2025
The partial government shutdown, Earnings and Inflation are in Focus
Bottom Line: My first rule of money... Never let your money and emotions cross paths. This story is a weekly wake-up call to show you the near-worst-case scenario for stocks and crypto. Why? So, you can plan your financial future with a cool head, not a racing pulse. The odds of a near-worst case outcome almost certainly won’t happen, however if your plan accounts for it – it can help you manage even the most trying markets like what we’ve experienced this year.
The US stock market is history’s ultimate wealth-building beast. Crypto? It’s minted millionaires from early believers. Fact: Over 90% of the time, investors who try to “time” the market end up poorer than if they just stuck to their original investments. This is about dodging that trap.
Here’s how the big three indexes are faring in 2025 so far:
- DOW: +11% (-1%)
- S&P 500: +15% (-2%)
- Nasdaq: +19% (-4% last week)
The partial government shutdown, now on its 41st day, is increasingly in focus as additional aspects of the economy are impacted, most notably those connected to the travel industry amid the FAA’s 10% reduction of flights. With stocks, especially AI names, having reached a series of record highs through the first four weeks of the shutdown – last week provided an excuse for selling, as the Nasdaq had its worst week since April. The selling came amid growing economic concerns as the ADP Report for job growth came in a bit stronger than expected, however also with the news that layoffs in October reached the highest level for the month in 22 years.
As for earnings...
As of Friday, 91% of companies reported earnings for the third quarter with 13.1% year-over-year growth, which is much stronger than the 7.9% expected. This week will likely be a pivotal week as investors weigh whether a correction is the next step for the market or if last week’s tech selling is just a pause. Much of that will likely come down to if the shutdown ends. Related, the monthly inflation reports (CPI and PPI) are scheduled for Thursday though they may likely be delayed by the shutdown.
As for cryptos...
Here’s a look at where they stand.
- Bitcoin: -9% last week, +8% YTD
- Ether: -13% last week, +2% YTD
- BitwiseETF (Top 10 cryptos): -9%, last week +10% YTD
I can’t value cryptos because they have no inherent value. Stocks, though? They’ve got bones. Let’s break down the S&P 500:
- Current P/E: 30.38
- Historic Avg. P/E: 16.18
Translation: On earnings alone, the maximum downside risk is a 47% drop from here—2% less than a week ago as stock prices fell faster than fundamentals. The market is historically expensive as it’s priced near the highest multiple of the current bull market cycle.
So, What’s Your Move?
If a 47% dip wouldn’t derail your life, you’re probably golden. If it would? Time to call a pro and build a plan that doesn’t leave you sweating bullets—or making mistakes.