Q&A of the Day – 2025’s Hurricane Season Predictions vs. Reality
Each day I feature a listener question sent by one of these methods.
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Today’s entry: Brian- What are your thoughts on this hurricane season? Notice how it just seemed to end prematurely with forecasters ignoring the preseason forecasts for an above average year? Even the acting FEMA director just resigned. You know that wouldn’t happen if there were any potential threats left.
Bottom Line: Sure enough. So yes, technically hurricane season doesn’t end for another ten days. For practical purposes it certainly appears to have run its course as November hasn’t produced any activity to date with any potential future activity becoming less likely by the day. Also, as you noted, David Richardson, the acting head of FEMA resigned this past Monday. While media accounts of this largely focus on FEMA’s flood response in Texas, which many are critical of, it most likely is the case that he wouldn’t step away creating a transition within the Federal Emergency Management Agency if there were concerns of potential hurricane threats they’d have to contend with before the season is technically over. So, with that said, we likely can consider this hurricane season as effectively over which allows us to make some forecasting comparisons.
The consensus preseason forecasting for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season was an above average season in activity due to factors like warmer sea surface temperatures and neutral atmospheric conditions (the absence of El Nino or La Nina patterns that have influenced recent hurricane seasons). In fact, every major hurricane season forecaster called for an above average season – which obviously hasn’t happened. As for what the predictions were and as for what has happened...
AccuWeather (preseason forecast):
- 13-18 named storms (15.5 midpoint), 7-10 hurricanes (8.5 midpoint), 3-5 majors (4 midpoint)
Colorado State University (preseason forecast):
- 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes, 4 majors
NOAA (preseason forecast):
- 13-19 named storms (16 midpoint), 6-10 hurricanes (8 midpoint), 3-5 majors (4 midpoint)
Historic average (1991-2020):
- 14.4 named storms, 7.2 hurricanes, 3.2 major hurricanes
2025’s Hurricane season:
- 13 named storms, 5 hurricanes, 4 major hurricanes
Obviously, this year’s hurricane season didn’t prove to be an above average season as had been the consensus forecasting (using the midpoint guidance of all forecasters), in fact it proved to be a below average season in terms of overall activity. Total activity came in at the lowest end of both the AccuWeather and NOAA forecasts, with hurricane activity well below all forecasts. All three forecasters were accurate in projecting the number of major hurricanes, which was the one category that was slightly above the historic norms. So, in answer to today’s question, what are my thoughts?
My thoughts are twofold. First, preseason hurricane forecasting is based on numerous assumptions about weather patterns and oceans temps, etc. It’s not necessarily surprising that after numerous years of elevated activity forecasters generally errored to the upside this year. With that said, there are a few remarkable aspects to this hurricane season that pertain to a topic I’ve long discussed as being overly discounted in hurricane forecasting... Saharan dust.
The 2025 hurricane season was the first that didn’t include a U.S. landfall in a decade (2015). That stands in significant contrast to not just what’s been experienced in recent years but especially with the preseason forecasting generally. Also, save for Hurricane Nicole in November of 2022 which made landfall at Vero Beach (and technically it was a tropical storm with winds at 70 mph at landfall), it’s now been over twenty years – twenty – since the east coast of Florida experienced a direct hurricane landfall. That’s a hugely understated piece of conversation in discussions at large in my view...and specifically the why behind it.
As I’ve talked about for years, Saharan dust is the wildcard. A persistent season of Saharan dust, one of the most active (if not the most active) on record, was the greatest catalyst for this year’s below average season. Importantly, unlike in previous seasons, the Saharan dust commonly covered the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America which significantly reduced threats within the Gulf – which had been the epicenter of devastating activity in recent years.
A leading reason why, during a time of record recorded activity over the past twenty years, Florida’s Atlantic coast has gone a historically long time without a direct landfall is a result of Saharan dust inhibiting activity in areas that are most prone to reaching our coastline. This season we saw the impact when it became pervasive in the Caribbean Sea and Gulf as well. The narrative in the meteorological community has commonly been that climate change/higher temps leads to more activity and stronger storms... Independent of other factors that’s true. But there is another factor that appears to still be discounted, and that’s the impact on the Saharan Air Layer. Higher temps have resulted in increased Saharan dust activity too – which is the ultimate hurricane repellant. Maybe this year’s results will result in more notice.