DHS & ICE, Nancy Guthrie: Deadlines Loom Large & The TPUSA Halftime Show Too - Top 3 Takeaways - February 9th, 2026
Takeaway #1: The great disconnect
There are no shortage of significant disconnects in society today. For example, over 90% of Republicans approve of President Trump’s performance in his second term thus far, over 90% of Democrats don’t. A super majority – 66% of Wyoming’s voters approve of President Trump – while a super majority of Vermont’s voters, 31% (approval) don’t. Btw, while on topic Trump’s net approval in Florida +4%. Anyway, as an analyst one of the fascinating aspects of human behavior is how similar people in similar situations with similar circumstances can look at a person, or issue or information and perceive the person, issue or information completely differently. I’m always inclined to warn against recency bias in making declarations about how extreme a person, issue or situation is as 0it’s easy for what we’re experiencing today to have outsized influence over how we perceive current events contrasted with historical outcomes. For example, when people might say that this is the most divided the country has ever been (which btw I can recall coming up regularly since the 2000 election), the easy go to I point to, to illustrate that it most certainly isn’t, is the Civil War. Until and unless we’re literally at war with each other – it's demonstrably true that we’ve been more divided as Americans than we currently happen to be. With that said... It is safe to say that as a country, we’re the most divided we’ve been ideologically in documented political history. Gallup, the first accredited national pollster, has been around since the 1930’s, and most recently what we’ve seen is that the divide between the average Democrat and average Republican has never been larger. This is driven by a record high number of Democrats (55%) saying they’re “very liberal” coinciding with a record high number of Republicans saying they’re “very conservative” (77%).
Takeaway #2: This has created the Great Disconnect that’s present just about everywhere in our current society
It’s absurd on its face that the biggest story heading into last night’s Super Bowl wasn’t the game but rather what half-time show you’d watch because the NFL continues to politicize itself with JayZ contributing...which btw, if the answer was none because you didn’t watch the game, that makes you normal. Consider that last year’s Super Bowl was the most watched broadcast in history... There were just under 128 million people who viewed it. While massive and impressive, it’s still only 38% of the U.S. Population... or if you adjust for those under the age of 6 (where ratings tracking begins) - it’s about 40% of the country. So, in other words, even in the most watched Super Bowl 60% of the country is doing something else (in my case sleeping). The Super Bowl illustration is instructive in highlighting the differences in perception and reality. Pop culture/society at large makes it seem as though there essentially isn’t anyone alive who doesn’t tune into the game, but in reality, it’s the overwhelming majority of the country that doesn’t. The Super Bowl itself is endemic to our society’s Great Disconnect. Btw, I bet there were many people who watched the TPUSA event that never tuned into the game. That’s a number I’ll be particularly interested in seeing. But anyway...
Takeaway #3: The Great Disconnect is set to come to a head this week.
As I highlighted last week... Recently YouGov polling found more Americans supporting abolishing ICE (46%) than keeping it (43%) - driven by what’s now near unanimousness among Democrats to do this. That total is up from 27% just last summer. In other words, nearly twice as many people – who’re almost all Democrats – have been radicalized to believe that there should be no law enforcement agency to enforce immigration policy. With DHS funding set to lapse on Saturday impacting department agencies from TSA screeners to ICE officers, the disconnect between the political parties appears to be similarly great. Most recently the Democrat demands for changes to ICE enforcement activity have actually grown from an original three to ten! Meaning elected Democrats over the past week have actually been rapidly moving harder to the Left than we’re ever seen – including during the post-George Floyd era of “Defund Police”. The ten current Democrat ICE-related demands are these: only Targeted enforcement, No masks, Require ID, No “sensitive” locations, Body cameras, Amended use-of-force policies, No racial profiling, Verify citizenship before detention, No roving patrols, Additional accountability measures. Without getting into the nitty gritty one of those contains mutual agreement (body cams which ICE usually uses but is in the process of making mandatory independent of what Congress say)...with two others where there could be the ability to meet each other halfway...and about seven non-starters which would permanent knee cap ICE’s ability to effectively enforce immigration law in any meaningful way – which is the point of the extremes on display by the Democrat Party. Which, and let’s be clear – the extremism on this matter is squarely within the Democrat Party as Republicans are simply seeking to keep that status quo procedures in place that Democrats had always previously agreed to since the incarnation of DHS. The odds of a partial government shutdown of DHS appear more likely than not. And as Saturday’s deadline draws near, there’s of course the Nancy Guthrie hostage deadline that’s far nearer as in today. The latest word is that a ransom note demanded a $6 million dollar ransom that’s due today. Pray for Nancy’s safe escape. Pray for our country that’s especially divided these days, pray for ICE officers in the field and their families and pray that elected Democrats actually prioritize their constituents over criminal illegal immigrants. The Great Divide over ICE and DHS has the near-term potential to lead to great harm in our country just as the defund police movement did in the places where it played back then.